Let's talk about the GOP worrying about Texas flipping blue.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about the GOP worrying about Texas flipping blue.

There's always talk about Texas flipping blue, mainly from Democrats who are eager to see it happen. However, this time the worry is coming from Republicans, Senate Republicans, and public. That's kind of new, especially in the way it's happening.

The Senate primary is just a few days away, and there's an incredibly high likelihood that incumbent Senator John Cornyn will head to a runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. That runoff is expected to be an incredibly expensive, mudslinging mess. Two and a half months of the Republican party spending money that it would prefer to save for the general election. Just the primary has cost Republicans $100 million. That amount would likely skyrocket during a primary runoff as Republicans try to keep Paxton off the ticket.

The worry is pretty easy to explain. Paxton is popular with Republican primary voters, but his lengthy list of scandals might cause him to fail in a general election. Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune said, "Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that the seat flips depending on who the Democrats nominate.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee had a memo for donors that put their fears out there. The memo flatly says Paxton puts the seat at risk. It cites polling data from early February that says Cornyn beats both likely Democratic challengers by a wider margin than Paxton. It's worth noting that their polling says Paxton is only a single point up against Crockett.

This worry already showing up and being spoken in public means a number of things. One is that the runoff is almost certain where Republicans will once again spend millions. And the second thing is that if Paxton wins, the Republicans will view the seat as one they have to defend. That means that Republicans will spend a bunch of money to defend the Texas seat. Every dollar spent in the Texas primary runoff or defending the seat in the general is a dollar the Republican party doesn't have to spend in Maine or in North Carolina or in the other states they're trying to defend.

Paxton's team will certainly make the argument that the Republican Senate establishment in DC is against him. And well, to some degree he's right. Thune endorsed Cornyn. There's also the argument that worrying about the monetary resources doesn't address whether Paxton or Cornyn is better for the job. These are arguments that will probably work with a lot of the Republican base. Either way, we're days away from finding out whether multiple Senate races across the country have their dynamic shifted by the Republican primary in Texas.

Anyway, it's just a thought. You all have a good day.