Let's talk about Trump's Texas loss not being a shock or surprise.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's Texas loss not being a shock or surprise.

I'm guessing most of you have already seen the headlines on this one, but for the sake of context, a candidate Trump actively endorsed suffered a landslide defeat in a ruby red Texas district that Trump won by 17 points in 2024. Trump pushed for the Republican in a get out the vote message, saying, "She's a highly successful entrepreneur and an incredible supporter of our movement to make America great again. My good friend, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, needs a strong conservative Republican in SD9 to keep Texas red."

Preliminary results are saying it looks like the final outcome of the Texas state Senate 9 runoff will be somewhere around 57% for Fort Worth Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet and just under 43% for the Republican. So Trump wins by 17 points in 2024. And now the Democratic candidate wins by somewhere around 14 or 15. That's an absolutely shifted political landscape, but it isn't a shock. The longtime idea is that all politics is local. But in the days of Trump micromanaging the entirety of the Republican party, according to his whim, local politics is national. Events in Minnesota swing votes in Texas.

All of the polling suggested this was likely. Republicans have lost major portions of the Latino vote, the conspiracy vote, and now they're losing at least some of the Second Amendment vote. That's on top of falling approval ratings, a bad economy, and a Republican party that has done nothing to curtail the worst impulses of Trump.

Texas Democratic Party Chairman Kendall Scudder explained it simply. "When a grassroots union organizer like Taylor Rehmet overperforms by almost 20 points and forces a runoff, it couldn't be any clearer that voters are tired of Republican bull.”

The Republican party is going to try to portray this as anything other than what it was, a massive swing in voter sentiment. They'll say it was due to it being a special election. They'll say it was the weather. They'll blame turnout. They might even suggest that manly conservatives didn't want to vote for a woman. They'll probably eventually suggest she couldn't run a fair race because her shoes were untied.

There is no excuse that will adequately explain a swing of this size other than the obvious. A rejection of Trumpism in ruby red Texas. I'm not sure US congressional Republicans will have ever analyzed a state senate race in Texas quite like they'll study this one. Trump's quacks are getting louder, and his lame duck status is becoming more and more clear. Eventually, those in the US House and Senate will realize that their political futures might hinge on being one of the first Republicans to start breaking with Trumpian policies. Expect to hear about the race from now until the midterms.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.