Putin keeps trying to sell Russia a story of inevitable victory, but the evidence points in the opposite direction. Russia is dealing with fuel shortages, rising public anxiety, a nervous dictator expanding his own security, Belarus looking to China for cover, Poland-Ukraine tensions that benefit Moscow, Britain rebuilding its military around Ukraine’s drone-war lessons, and Russian propaganda being laundered into Western media. This is not one isolated crisis. It is the same war breaking different systems in different places.

0:00 Putin’s war is breaking more than Ukraine
0:16 Putin’s fake victory narrative
0:33 Russia’s gasoline crisis gets harder to hide
1:56 Russia prepares a shadow LNG fleet
2:42 Putin boosts security for himself
3:19 Russians search for the end of the war
4:01 Belarus, Lukashenko, and China
7:03 Poland, Bandera, MiGs, and drone technology
11:44 Britain rebuilds around Ukraine’s drone war
12:28 Ukraine’s defense-tech partnerships grow
13:01 Tucker Carlson platforms Russian talking points
18:50 Iran, Trump, oil, and the wider pressure picture
21:53 Viewer comments and Poland question
23:15 Putin’s war story leaves out the obvious facts