The European Country Putin Stubbornly Refuses to Invade - PolyMatter

Summary of Transnistria and Moldova Conflict

The Paradox: Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, desperately wants to be annexed by Russia, but Putin refuses—not because he can't, but because it's more valuable as leverage.

Historical Origins:

• Stalin created a "Moldovan" identity in the 1920s-30s by combining two distinct territories
• The eastern sliver (now Transnistria) was industrialized under Soviet control, while the western 80% was under Romanian rule
• When the USSR collapsed, these regions split: Moldova embraced independence and Romanian culture, while Transnistria declared independence to preserve its Soviet identity

Why the Stalemate Persists:

Moldova's perspective:

• The conflict ranks as their 9th-10th priority—economic issues matter more
• Integrating Transnistria would shift politics toward Russia
• Current arrangement allows free movement and trade

Transnistria's perspective:

• Profits enormously from legal limbo through smuggling and tax evasion
• Receives free Russian gas (over $6 billion unpaid)
• Elite-controlled companies like "Sheriff" dominate the economy

Russia's strategy:

• Uses Transnistria as a bargaining chip to influence Moldova
• Free energy ensures loyalty while demonstrating benefits of Russian alignment
• Prevents Moldova from joining the EU by keeping the conflict unresolved
• Hopes to eventually negotiate reunification on terms that give Russia influence over Moldova

Putin's patience has turned this into a 30-year frozen conflict with no end in sight.