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'Indian Nino' Drove Record Heat in 2023 and 2024, New UMD Study Finds
https://today.umd.edu/briefs/indian-ni%C3%B1o-drove-record-heat-in-2023-and-2024-new-umd-study-finds'Indian Niño' Drove Record Heat in 2023 and 2024, New UMD Study Finds
May 06, 2026 By Jason P. Dinh
In 2023 and 2024, Earth’s average global surface temperature spiked nearly 0.3 degrees Celsius above what was already expected from climate change. Both years were declared the hottest on record and coincided with deadly wildfires, heat waves and historic numbers of climate-related disasters—but until now, scientists have struggled to explain why.
In a new study published Wednesday in the journal Earth System Dynamics, University of Maryland researchers propose a novel answer: They attribute part of the temperature surge to a climate cycle similar to El Niño known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The researchers built a climate model that predicts global temperatures based on an extensive list of natural and manmade factors. The variables they considered could explain 93% of the global surface temperature anomaly in 2023 and 92% in 2024—the closest scientists have gotten to explaining the record-breaking heat. The IOD was among the most important predictors; when the IOD was omitted, the model’s predictive ability fell dramatically.
…
The IOD, sometimes called “Indian Niňo,” refers to the difference in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean’s western and eastern sides. Depending on the year, the western side can be warmer or cooler than the eastern side by varying degrees. This temperature gradient affects everything from rainfall patterns in India to bushfires in Australia.
…
Farago, E. Z. et al. Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024. Earth System Dynamics 17, 451–474 (2026).
May 06, 2026 By Jason P. Dinh
In 2023 and 2024, Earth’s average global surface temperature spiked nearly 0.3 degrees Celsius above what was already expected from climate change. Both years were declared the hottest on record and coincided with deadly wildfires, heat waves and historic numbers of climate-related disasters—but until now, scientists have struggled to explain why.
In a new study published Wednesday in the journal Earth System Dynamics, University of Maryland researchers propose a novel answer: They attribute part of the temperature surge to a climate cycle similar to El Niño known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The researchers built a climate model that predicts global temperatures based on an extensive list of natural and manmade factors. The variables they considered could explain 93% of the global surface temperature anomaly in 2023 and 92% in 2024—the closest scientists have gotten to explaining the record-breaking heat. The IOD was among the most important predictors; when the IOD was omitted, the model’s predictive ability fell dramatically.
…
The IOD, sometimes called “Indian Niňo,” refers to the difference in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean’s western and eastern sides. Depending on the year, the western side can be warmer or cooler than the eastern side by varying degrees. This temperature gradient affects everything from rainfall patterns in India to bushfires in Australia.
…