Study Projects Plant Extinction Rates Through 2100. (7% to 16% of global plant species at high risk of extinction)
https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news/study-projects-plant-extinction-rates-through-2100
Habitat Loss, Not Sluggish Range Shifts, Drives Plant Extinctions Under Climate Change
by Kat Kerlin May 07, 2026
No matter how fast a species under threat can move, escape can only be successful if the new destination can meet its needs.
An ecological modeling study from the University of California, Davis, found that 7% to 16% of global plant species studied are expected to lose more than 90% of their range, facing high risk of extinction by 2100 under current climate change projections.
The study, published today in the journal Science, said habitat loss due to climate change is expected to drive these extinctions, not a plants ability to shift locations or keep pace with the changing climate.
This suggests that conservation strategies focused on assisted migration, where people facilitate species range shifts, may not reduce global plant extinctions induced by climate change. However, combining such efforts with restoration and protecting climate change refugia may be more effective.
Junna Wang
et al. ,Climate-induced range shifts support local plant diversity but dont reduce extinction risk.
Science 392,648-654(2026).DOI:
10.1126/science.aea1676