Large-Scale Study Finds Every $1 Spent on Prevention Saves $3.75
by Amy Quinton May 07, 2026

Every dollar spent on forest fuel treatments saves about $3.75 in wildfire damages, according to a new study, led by researchers at the University of California, Davis, of nearly 300 fires in the western United States. The study estimated that the treatments, such as forest thinning and prescribed burns, prevented $2.8 billion in losses, reduced wildfire spread and fire severity.

The researchers analyzed the nearly 300 wildfires that intersected USDA Forest Service fuel reduction treatments in 11 states between 2017 and 2023. The study is the first to evaluate the economic value of Forest Service fuel treatments across the West at a large-scale using data from wildfires that encountered fuel treatments rather than relying on wildfire simulation models. It was published today in Science.

“Fuel treatments and forest management are critically underfunded public goods,” said lead author Frederik Strabo, a postdoctoral scholar with the UC Davis Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. “Our results suggest that when fewer resources are available to agencies like the Forest Service, more of the economic burden of wildfires falls on the public.”

The researchers measured wildfire damages including structure losses, carbon emissions and the health impacts of exposure to fine particulate matter. As climate change has intensified wildfires in recent decades, those damages are estimated to total $185 billion to $540 billion a year.

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