New study finds that many of the state’s valuable and most recognizable trees could decline sooner than expected because current risk calculations don’t incorporate climate change

April 24, 2026 • By Mike Peña

Key takeaways

• California’s iconic trees are in much more danger from climate change than official international conservation lists currently show. These rankings often underestimate the risk because they do not fully account for how rising temperatures will shrink the areas where these trees can survive.


• Many well-known species, such as the blue oak and Western Joshua tree, are expected to lose more than half of their suitable habitat by 2055. By the end of the century, nearly 40% of the species studied could lose their entire current habitat if global emissions continue on their current path.


• The study highlights the emergence of “zombie forests,” which are groups of adult trees that look healthy but can no longer produce seedlings in today’s climate. Without intervention, these “living relics” are destined to vanish once the current generation of trees eventually dies.

…

The study, published on April 24 in journal Global Change Biology, reveals that over the next century, California’s endemic and near-endemic trees are projected to lose between half and three-quarters of their climatically suitable habitat. Perhaps most strikingly, the research demonstrates that the trees’ current conservation status on the globally authoritative International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List don’t yet reflect this imminent risk.

…