Study: Projected "Disturbance" Of European Forests - By Fire, Flooding, Drought, Disease - Set To Rise 30% By 2100

Forest disturbance across Europe could more than double by the end of the century with continued global warming, fundamentally reshaping landscapes from the cork oak woodlands of Portugal to ice-etched birch thickets in northern Finland, according to a sweeping new study published Wednesday in the journal Science. The researchers developed a continent-wide forest model powered by artificial intelligence that simulated linked forest processes in a spatially realistic way.

About 40 percent of Europe is forested. By zooming in on plots the size of two football fields, the researchers could see how waves of drought, extreme heat and other stressors unfold together and amplify each other, and how repeated disturbances can push forests back to earlier growth stages before they mature.

Even in a low-emission future, warming-fueled disturbances across European forests are projected to increase about 30 percent by the end of the century. But if emissions and global warming slow in the next few decades, disturbances would peak by mid-century rather than continuing to intensify, the authors wrote.

The model identified wildfire as the most climate-sensitive cause of future disturbances, especially in southern Europe, where hotter temperatures and drier air drive a sharp increase in burn areas. In the simulations, insect outbreaks also intensify as the warmer temperatures speed up reproductive cycles and reduce winter insect mortality.

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https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05032026/global-warming-european-forest-wildfires/