Demand for new electric vehicles has flatlined in California, new sales figures show, raising questions as to whether automobile manufacturers can meet ambitious state mandates for zero-emission vehicle sales.

Aside from Tesla, which sells only EVs, no other major manufacturer will meet the state’s 35% threshold for zero-emission vehicles in the upcoming 2026 model year, said Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Assn.“The data don’t lie,” Maas said. “The demand doesn’t match what the mandate requires. It’s just that simple.”

New sales figures from the dealers trade group show 387,368 zero-emission vehicles were registered in California in 2024, or roughly one out of four new cars sold. Even so, that represents just a 1% increase over previous year figures, when EV sales soared 46%. Total California new car sales for 2024 were also flat, at 1.75 million vehicles.

There are potentially severe implications for automakers. Failing to meet the 35% mandate, according to Maas, means either paying penalties of $20,000 for every noncompliant vehicle sold, or restricting gasoline and diesel inventory in California so the percentage can be met. Automakers can also reduce fines by buying state-issued emission credits from automakers who hold a surplus of them. The vast majority are held by Tesla.