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Judi Lynn

(162,703 posts)
Wed Jan 15, 2025, 05:04 AM Wednesday

Trump Is Wrong. The US Does Not Subsidize Canada

In fact, it’s the other way around. These numbers show a tariff war makes no sense.

Jim Stanford Today The Tyee
Jim Stanford is economist and director of the Centre for Future Work in Vancouver, and author of the recent report “Who’s Subsidizing Whom? Myth and Reality about the Canada-U.S. Trade Balance.”


U.S. president-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose immediate across-the-board 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, even higher tariffs on China and tariffs on other countries as well. He says they will start with executive orders on Monday, his inauguration day.

Initially, these threats were interpreted as a strategy to exert leverage over other countries on a range of trade and non-trade matters, from border issues to defence spending to taxes and regulations on U.S.-based tech giants. That may have been wishful thinking, because Trump’s rhetoric has now turned more ominous.

Reports suggest he may invoke a “national economic emergency” to activate special presidential powers. And he has spoken of using “economic force” to effectively annex Canada, as part of a broader strategy of territorial expansion (potentially including Greenland, Mexico and Panama).

Trump’s aggressive and unpredictable approach means Canadians must take these threats very seriously.

The impact on Canadian employment and GDP from a major across-the-board tariff on our exports to the United States (which constitute the large majority of our exports) would be devastating, almost certainly causing a protracted recession.

More:
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2025/01/15/Trump-Wrong-US-Does-Not-Subsidize-Canada/

10 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Trump Is Wrong. The US Does Not Subsidize Canada (Original Post) Judi Lynn Wednesday OP
Allow me to fix: "Trump Is A LIAR." The US Does Not Subsidize Canada" hlthe2b Wednesday #1
Thank you. tetedur Wednesday #2
Don't blame Trump Martin Eden Wednesday #3
"Trump is wrong" aka-chmeee Wednesday #4
Nine points Bernardo de La Paz Wednesday #5
Could another reason for Rump's tariffs be so that US corporations can jack up the prices on US consumers and keep them LaMouffette Wednesday #6
Trump is not wrong. He is lying. There is a distinction. Midnight Writer Wednesday #7
TFG aka The Felony Guy does not understand how international trade works LetMyPeopleVote Wednesday #8
Working with Canada makes more sense than working against Canada, unless you are Trump. twodogsbarking Wednesday #9
Annexing Canada Baron2024 Wednesday #10

hlthe2b

(107,227 posts)
1. Allow me to fix: "Trump Is A LIAR." The US Does Not Subsidize Canada"
Wed Jan 15, 2025, 05:20 AM
Wednesday

sigh... The MSM is really collapsing on itself, isn't it? Even Canadian media...

Bernardo de La Paz

(51,820 posts)
5. Nine points
Wed Jan 15, 2025, 07:41 AM
Wednesday

The article makes nine points, which I list just the titles here. Read the article for discussion of each point.

Here are nine reality checks:

1. Canada is the largest market in the world for U.S. exports.

2. The Canada-U.S. trade relationship is among the most balanced of all major U.S. trading partners.

3. The bilateral deficit with Canada ranks 10th among U.S. trading partners, accounting for only five per cent of the total U.S. trade deficit.

4. Trump’s claim the bilateral deficit is $200 billion is an utter fabrication.

5. Compared with a two-way trade flow of almost US$1 trillion per year, this imbalance is puny.

6. The United States enjoys a strong surplus in services trade with Canada,

7. The United States also enjoys a net surplus on investment income flowing out of Canada (C$13 billion in 2023).

8. Most Canadian exports to the United States are unfinished inputs that U.S. businesses use in their own production — more so than with other trading partners.

9. Having access to a secure and lower-cost energy source is a major benefit for U.S. businesses and consumers.


Three edited points:
In fact, in at least three ways Canada clearly subsidizes the United States, not the other way around. Unusual and sweet trade arrangements, deviating from normal international trade or business practices, effectively subsidize the United States:

1. Canada is the only large net oil-exporting country without a state-owned oil producer, and U.S. companies own $55 billion worth of our oil and gas sector.

2. Large Canadian imports of services from the United States are weakly regulated, underreported and largely untaxed (and thus subsidized relative to other businesses).

3. Canadian investors made $700 billion worth of low-interest loans to the United States, fully offsetting the bilateral trade deficit over the past decade. Despite that, Canada incurs a large net deficit in investment income: $13 billion in net interest and profits flows south each year.

LaMouffette

(2,322 posts)
6. Could another reason for Rump's tariffs be so that US corporations can jack up the prices on US consumers and keep them
Wed Jan 15, 2025, 08:05 AM
Wednesday

there even if the tariffs are eventually removed, just like they did during COVID?

LetMyPeopleVote

(156,451 posts)
8. TFG aka The Felony Guy does not understand how international trade works
Wed Jan 15, 2025, 01:59 PM
Wednesday

The US has a trade deficit with Canada but that is largely due to buying oil and other resources from Canada.

Baron2024

(316 posts)
10. Annexing Canada
Wed Jan 15, 2025, 06:58 PM
Wednesday

Trump's idea of annexing Canada is deranged, dangerous and incompetent. It is also stupid. If in some fantasy universe Canada and the USA merged, Canada would not be the 51st state. Canada has ten provinces. If each province became a state, that would be a total of 60 US states in the new mega-country (50 US states plus 10 new Canadian ones). It would not be one massive 51st super-state. That would be ten more states, twenty more US Senators and many more House Representatives. The entire idea is stupid, outlandish and ridiculous, but if something like that ever happened it would not be what Trump seems to imagine in his deranged little imagination.

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