Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much less than expected despite war impact
Source: CNBC
Published Tue, Apr 14 2026 8:33 AM EDT Updated 21 Min Ago
Producer prices rose in March but considerably less than expected as the Iran war’s push on energy prices rekindled fears of another inflation burst. The producer price index, a gauge of pipeline costs for final demand goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 1.1%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Tuesday.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up just 0.1% against the forecast for 0.5%. The services side of inflation — a key focus for Federal Reserve policymakers — was flat on the month.
On an annual basis, the all-items PPI accelerated 4%, the biggest 12-month gain since February 2023. Core PPI posted a 3.8% annual gain. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI increased 0.2% monthly and 3.6% annually. Trade services slipped 0.3% for the month, an indicator that businesses are absorbing tariff costs.
The increase on the producer end of prices was less than the 0.9% gain in prices consumers actually paid for the month. Core consumer prices also were soft, rising just 0.2%.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/14/wholesale-prices-rose-0point5percent-in-march-much-less-than-expected-despite-war-impact.html
From the source -
Link to tweet
@BLS_gov
PPI for final demand advances 0.5% in March; goods rise 1.6%, services unchanged https://bls.gov/news.release/p
pi.nr0.htm
#PPI #BLSdata
8:33 AM · Apr 14, 2026
Article updated.
Previous articles -
Producer prices rose in March but considerably less than expected as the Iran war's push on energy prices rekindled fears of another inflation burst. The producer price index, a gauge of pipeline costs for final demand goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 1.1%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Tuesday.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up just 0.1% against the forecast for 0.5%.
On an annual basis, the all-items PPI accelerated 4%, the biggest 12-month gain since February 2023. Core PPI posted a 3.8% annual gain. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI increased 0.2% monthly and 3.6% annually.
The increase on the producer end of prices was less than the 0.9% gain in prices consumers actually paid for the month. Core consumer prices also were soft, rising just 0.2%. As expected, energy was the primary culprit in the index gain.
Producer prices rose in March but considerably less than expected as the Iran war's push on energy prices rekindled fears of another inflation burst.
The producer price index, a gauge of pipeline costs for final demand goods and services, increased 0.5% for the month, well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 1.1%.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up just 0.1% against the forecast for 0.5%.
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Original article -
The producer price index was expected to increase 1.1% in March, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.
= new reply since forum marked as read
Again with nobody in the business media pointing out that Trump fired everybody that gave him bad (read as "real"
numbers and replaced them with loyalists that would give him good numbers.
Last edited Tue Apr 14, 2026, 06:20 PM - Edit history (1)
# BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
# PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
# PPI ex food, energy, and trade services http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
6.3% 6.4% 4.0% Regular PPI (includes food & energy & trade services)
2.5% 4.8% 3.6% Core PPI (does not have food, energy, or trade services)
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target
I added red lines at 2.0% which is the Federal Reserve's target, so to make clear how far from that goal prices are. The reason I annualize everything is so they can be compared to the 2% target.
One reason for the big increase in year-over-year despite "just" a 0.5% increase in March, is that a negative amount in March 2025 dropped out of the 12-month window. Yes, what drops out of the window is just as important in determining the size and direction of the 12-month average as what enters the window.
The BLS features the above two in their news release. The news release never mentions a PPI less food and energy.
Food, energy, and trade services are the volatile components
The trade services is very volatile:
See Table 1 in ppi.nr0.htm: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t01.htm
Trade Services month-over-month percentage increases in the last 5 months were:
. . . +0.2%, +2.0%, +2.0%, -0.4%, -0.3%,
Trade services increase over last 12 months: +4.2%
The volatility is why they strip it out of their core measure (actually they never use the word "core" )
