Chip Roy on Johnson: 'I don't believe he has the votes'

Source: The Hill

12/31/24 11:05 AM ET


Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said Tuesday that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) does not have the votes to keep the gavel and that he remains undecided on whether he can support the Louisiana Republican in the Friday floor vote, despite President-elect Trump endorsing Johnson.

“I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues, because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned about that might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the president’s agenda,” Roy said Tuesday on “Varney & Co.” on Fox Business. Later, Roy said Johnson does not yet have the support to be Speaker. “Right now, I don’t believe he has the votes on Friday,” Roy said.

Several other Republicans — including Reps. Andy Harris (Md.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.) and Victoria Spartz (Ind.) — are continuing to withhold support for Johnson despite Trump’s endorsement. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has said he will vote for a person other than Johnson, has also signaled that Trump’s endorsement did not change his mind.

Johnson can only afford one Republican defection in the Jan. 3 Speaker election, assuming all members are present and voting for a candidate. The House’s incoming 215 Democrats are all expected to vote for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), and Republicans are expected to have 219 members in attendance that day.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5061200-chip-roy-undecided-mike-johnson-speaker/

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As a note, there is what I call "funky math" that goes on with the tally and it has to do with who is voting and whether they list themselves as "present" instead (which impacts the total to calculate "the majority" ).

This was illustrated with the 15 votes that McCarthy went through in 2021 -


(above from here (NYT) - Vote Count: McCarthy Elected House Speaker After 15 Ballots

The operative thing -



So in the 2021 example, although "216 - 213" for vote #14 looks like he "won", he didn't because for the "total" of 432, he needed "217". In vote #15, the "total" dropped to "428" (with the others now "present" so not included in the "total" ), and that meant he only needed "215" for a "majority" (out of 428) and got "216".

So at vote time, if there are 434 (with Gaetz gone already), then "a majority" would require at least 218 votes. I.e.,

434 / 2 = 217 (tie) + 1 = 218

and the GOP currently has 219 (assuming all are there and none are "voting present" ), thus the mention of "can only lose 1 vote" thing.