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kentuck

(115,979 posts)
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 08:58 PM 10 hrs ago

The Iran War has taken an unpredictable turn.

Israel wants everyone to know that they did not sign the MofU, that Trump signed. They went into Lebanon last night and killed several dozen people in their pursuit of Hezbollah. This did not go over very well with the present Iranian leaders. They said they were closing the Strait of Hormuz once again.

Trump's fortunes lie with the Strait being open. He needs the oil to flow freely. The markets are at a dangerous level. The world's reserves are getting very low. This could have a very detrimental effect on the world's economy, including our own.

Netanyahu has put Trump into a very uncomfortable box. If he cannot control the leader of Israel, it is going to be difficult to get beyond the MofU.

Trump does not handle pressure very well. He could become desperate in his words and actions. The war is at a very serious crossroads, in my opinion.

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regnaD kciN

(27,748 posts)
1. "If he cannot control the leader of Israel"...
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 09:04 PM
9 hrs ago

I think it's safe to assume that Bibi holds a full copy of the former Mossad asset Epstein files, so that will never happen.

erronis

(24,894 posts)
3. It is safe to assume. Israel and Russia and probably China and others have trump's balls in a vise.
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 09:53 PM
9 hrs ago

Jack Valentino

(5,376 posts)
2. If Israel is "uncontrollable", then we better go in and TAKE AWAY their NUCLEAR WEAPONS !!!!
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 09:53 PM
9 hrs ago

I'm only half-joking here.....

At this point, morally the state of Israel is little better than Iran---

Yes, Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, but on the other hand, they haven't committed a
GENOCIDE....




erronis

(24,894 posts)
4. It's no longer that nation-states that are the centers of terror - they are transnational
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 09:57 PM
9 hrs ago

The oligarchs/plutocrats are controlling the weapons of war and terror. Bibi is responding to his supporters as well as his potential executors. Same as trump.

EX500rider

(12,849 posts)
5. I'd say killing upwards of 30,000 of their own citizens in the streets in under a month might count as "genocide"
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 09:57 PM
9 hrs ago

Jack Valentino

(5,376 posts)
6. Good point, although I question your cited number--- but regardless of the number,
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 10:09 PM
8 hrs ago

I don't think it fits the definition because 'motive' counts in the definition. This is a despotic government who was trying to put down protesters and demonstrations among their own people--- not to wipe out an entire population! Mass murder, sure-- but not a 'genocide' by definition.

From Google: Genocide is the deliberate, systematic effort to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group. It was termed in 1944 by Polish jurist Raphael Lemkin and is classified as a severe international crime.

Israel, on the other hand, clearly would like to kill every living human being in Gaza, and have been doing their best to do it for some time now...

PufPuf23

(10,018 posts)
10. Show me where 30,000 Iranians were killed besides from Israeli propaganda.
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 11:41 PM
7 hrs ago

Recall that Mossad encouraged and even armed some of the protestors who were subsequently left high and dry.

Israel is guilty of genocide and continues in Lebanon. Read Israel's media. Listen to the Israel's leadership. The whole World watches.

gab13by13

(33,035 posts)
7. Why is it unpredictable?
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 10:13 PM
8 hrs ago

When did Bibi claim he was in favor of a cease fire? When did Israel send negotiators to negotiate a cease fire?

Bibi wants war, Bibi wants to expand the territory of Israel. Bibi isn't going to give back the land in southern Lebanon that he is occupying. Bibi wants Krasnov to resume bombing Iran.

Lebanon was a part of the Krasnov memorandum.

Iran will never give up control of Hormuz.

Now I see that the US wants IAEA inspectors to inspect Iran's nuclear facilities, just like was in the deal that Krasnov tore up.

Everything is predictable to me, Krasnov has one goal left, to get the price of gas below $4/gal by the 4th of July so that he can hold a huge celebration honoring him. Crude oil is below $80/barrel, with Kabuki Theater negotiations resuming tomorrow, crude will drop even more even though Hormuz is closed.

Oh and Ukraine has seriously damaged Russia's oil and gas production, but no one talks about that.

moniss

(9,195 posts)
8. I think Kentuck might have been tongue in cheek with
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 10:29 PM
8 hrs ago

the word unpredictable. Your summation is excellent and spot on.

kentuck

(115,979 posts)
9. I don't think Trump is predictable...
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 11:06 PM
7 hrs ago

...other than he may do something totally insane?

Israel appears to be the key to any peace in that area for the foreseeable future.

I think there may be a lot that is not predictable. Wars can be very unpredictable.

The poster makes excellent points.

*** Also, I read that there are gas lines in Moscow.

swong19104

(672 posts)
11. I'm predicting that
Sat Jun 20, 2026, 11:48 PM
7 hrs ago

by next month, the US will be aligned with Iran to try to defeat Israel. 😝

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