Most mass shooters show warning signs before attacks, study finds

People who carry out mass public shootings often display observable warning signs long before an attack, but those signals are frequently fragmented across friends, family members, coworkers and institutions, making them difficult to piece together, according to a new study from the Regional Gun Violence Research Consortium at the Rockefeller Institute of Government, a nonpartisan public policy think tank.

The report, which analyzed a sample of 171 mass public shootings in the United States between 1999 and 2024, such as those at workplaces, schools or shopping malls, found that these attacks are rarely sudden or unpredictable. Instead, researchers describe them as the result of cumulative stressors, concerning behaviors and communications of intent that, if connected, could offer opportunities for earlier intervention.

An overwhelming majority of perpetrators, nearly 86%, communicated violent thoughts or intentions to at least one other person before carrying out an attack, a pattern researchers refer to as “leakage.” These disclosures most often occurred through in-person conversations or text messages and were typically made to people within the perpetrator’s immediate social circle, including friends, family members and coworkers.

On average, warning signs were spread across more than two different groups of observers, meaning no single person had a complete view of the escalating threat, according to the report.



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