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OGBuzz

(828 posts)
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 04:28 PM Jun 9

Trump lost both the 2016 and the 2024 elections.

I have no proof, I have zero evidence, but I do have a "gut feeling" and I have common sense. In both elections the conspiracies to elect Trump were so "diabolical", first with the Russians in 2016 followed by Musk in 2024, that coming up with irrefutable evidence is all but impossible.

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Trump lost both the 2016 and the 2024 elections. (Original Post) OGBuzz Jun 9 OP
Your gut is correct Botany Jun 9 #1
He could see the numbers early and adjust them as necessary questionseverything Jun 9 #27
Musk had already down loaded programs that made the outcome ..... Botany Jun 10 #60
There was an interview back then with Tucker Carlson where Musk and his son were giggling MadameButterfly Jun 9 #35
Just as kacekwl Jun 9 #2
and Moses Mike Johnson yesterday. OGBuzz Jun 9 #5
The O/P is satire on Johnson's remarks, right? Well done. Nt AloeVera Jun 9 #36
Correct, and thanks for catching it, there's a couple in the comments here that didn't get it. OGBuzz Jun 9 #42
Here's a diabolical redux: IcyPeas Jun 9 #50
Thanks for posting the video, that's the b.s. from Johnson that I was responding to. OGBuzz Jun 9 #53
It's sickening and dangerous... IcyPeas Jun 9 #58
The man has zero integrity and he's the House Speaker. Things will not go well in November. OGBuzz Jun 9 #59
I found myself watcbing his face closely whille he was talking. ShazzieB Jun 11 #86
Trump won both elections fair & square. Jacson6 Jun 9 #3
You got "proof"? OGBuzz Jun 9 #6
We have the audits states do EdmondDantes_ Jun 9 #9
States audited 2020 and Trump still denies that Biden won. As does pretty much every other MAGAt. OGBuzz Jun 9 #11
It holds as much evidentiary weight as trump's claim that he won 2020 except for the work of those "cheating Dems" Dave says Jun 9 #13
It is incredible Edmond that we can disagree in one thread and completely agree mr715 Jun 9 #22
I think the OP was spoofing on Trump thinking his own gut feeling MadameButterfly Jun 9 #37
Well and we can't prove it if we don't get to look 👀 questionseverything Jun 9 #43
True. The laws need to change so we can safely and effectively investigate MadameButterfly Jun 11 #87
Insider aka Tina Peters warning from James Baker. Blue Full Moon Jun 10 #66
I believe you are missing the point from the OP FHRRK1 Jun 9 #12
👍 It looks like my attempt at sarcasm completely failed with some.😂 I need to find one of those 'sarcasm' emojis OGBuzz Jun 9 #24
Damn it FHRRK1 Jun 9 #28
I figured you meant to say "put every Republican win into doubt". Am I right? OGBuzz Jun 9 #30
Exactly, dumbass FHRRK1 Jun 9 #55
In my defense sarcasm is often hard to read online EdmondDantes_ Jun 10 #63
It'd be nice if the software was open for review. Kid Berwyn Jun 9 #4
I will remain malaise Jun 9 #8
When we're dealing with grifters and cheaters, PatSeg Jun 9 #14
THIS malaise Jun 9 #15
We can always hope PatSeg Jun 9 #16
I feel like our system is broken at this point Melon Jun 9 #19
Digital vote counting can not be transparent because no human being can see inside the computer questionseverything Jun 9 #31
Voting in the US should be MANDATORY like it is in Australia. Tim S Jun 9 #7
If so many voters are anti-Republican sarisataka Jun 9 #10
What do you do with those who can't or won't pay the fine? MichMan Jun 9 #17
No. mr715 Jun 9 #23
Opting out isn't a viable option.. The right to descent and choose a 3rd party is the way to express your opinion Tim S Jun 9 #25
So, do you fine non-voters? mr715 Jun 9 #26
I don't know how Australia does it (you're welcome to look it up) but... Tim S Jun 9 #32
How about make voting easy, incentivize it, and ritualize it mr715 Jun 9 #34
States are free to choose their Electors for the Electoral College as they be fit, but... Tim S Jun 9 #39
Well, it'll take a Constitutional convention mr715 Jun 9 #40
Agreed... Tim S Jun 9 #45
I don't know, honestly. mr715 Jun 9 #48
Australia holds elections on Saturday which allows many more people to go to the polls. OGBuzz Jun 9 #46
Interesting. You proposing a voting tax.... Melon Jun 9 #57
Maybe folks can get with the Spencer Pratt people Sympthsical Jun 9 #18
As a corollary question... kentuck Jun 9 #20
There is proof. see below. in2herbs Jun 9 #21
Thanks for posting. yellow dahlia Jun 9 #29
I took a couple of statistics courses eons ago so I know a little about the subect. flashman13 Jun 9 #33
Ding ding malaise Jun 9 #38
Exactly, it's all about being afraid to look wrong questionseverything Jun 9 #44
Misunderstanding predictive statistics. mr715 Jun 9 #49
Now do the math for 88 swing counties please questionseverything Jun 10 #61
I am not making the extraordinary claim. mr715 Jun 10 #62
As Obama said, " we have to beat them so bad there can be no doubt " questionseverything Jun 10 #64
We do. mr715 Jun 10 #65
I don't think even Obama won all of those 88 swing counties but questionseverything Jun 10 #67
Agreed. nt mr715 Jun 10 #68
Mathematician here Metaphorical Jun 10 #79
Link provided. mr715 Jun 10 #80
I stand by my analysis. The chances of all seven going Trump in 2024 by just enough to avoid recounts is very near zero, flashman13 Jun 10 #73
There is your statistical question... mr715 Jun 10 #74
Can a woman be elected President? I want to believe it can happen. It would be a great step forward for the country. flashman13 Jun 10 #84
Statistically "damned near zero", is not the same as impossible MichMan Jun 9 #54
Everything Trump accuses others of Dave Id Jun 9 #41
He is the Projector-in-Chief. OGBuzz Jun 9 #47
I don't see much point in speculating about those elections. ShazzieB Jun 9 #51
My original post was intended to be sarcasm in response to Mike Johnson's comments yesterday casting doubt OGBuzz Jun 9 #52
Oh, sorry about that. ShazzieB Jun 10 #69
No worries.😃 IcyPeas posted the Johnson video if you're interested. Comment #50 in the thread. It's shocking. OGBuzz Jun 10 #70
Thanks for pointing me to the video. ShazzieB Jun 11 #85
Crazy how he couldn't steal 2020 then... Polybius Jun 9 #56
He tried, but that pesky Blue Tsunami. Who loses by 7 million votes??? OGBuzz Jun 10 #71
Reagan twice won by 7+ million votes, including these guys: Polybius Jun 10 #72
Okay, you got me. But in the 21st Century, only Barack and Ole' Joe. OGBuzz Jun 10 #75
And hopefully Gavin in 2028 Polybius Jun 10 #76
I'm with you on Gavin.👍 OGBuzz Jun 10 #78
Whether he did or not, and I think not, it doesn't really matter. BlueTsunami2018 Jun 10 #77
Is that so ? obnoxiousdrunk Jun 10 #81
This message was self-deleted by its author Seeking Serenity Jun 10 #82
He's a traitor. His cabinet and staff are traitors. His financial backers are all traitors. Seeking Serenity Jun 10 #83

Botany

(78,177 posts)
1. Your gut is correct
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 04:35 PM
Jun 9

Musk has admitted to cheating in the 2024 election when he said that he had a special app
that let him see the results of the election earlier. That wasn’t an app that was a hack.

Botany

(78,177 posts)
60. Musk had already down loaded programs that made the outcome .....
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 08:06 AM
Jun 10

… a done deal and Peter Thiel’s Palantir had a program called Digital Janitor that hid the vote
deletions*. and flips. Trump also benefited from voter caging that removed millions of voters
in swing states, the U.S.P.S. stopping @ least 1/2 a million mail in ballots because the “postage
was wrong” or the address was bad, and another million or so mail in ballots were rejected
because their were problems with the signatures matching.


* these were called undervotes. This hit Hillary in 2016 and the last 2 Ohio Senate races too.
People showed up and voted but “just skipped” voting for President.

MadameButterfly

(4,262 posts)
35. There was an interview back then with Tucker Carlson where Musk and his son were giggling
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 07:00 PM
Jun 9

about having the power to do whatever they want; they could barely keep it inside. If we could only have called up Tom Cruise I'm sure we'd have had a "Damn right I ordered the code red" moment.

OGBuzz

(828 posts)
42. Correct, and thanks for catching it, there's a couple in the comments here that didn't get it.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 07:20 PM
Jun 9

They just replayed Johnson's comments from yesterday and now I'm angry all over again.

IcyPeas

(25,967 posts)
58. It's sickening and dangerous...
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 08:42 PM
Jun 9

that the speaker of the house is promoting election lies.

Trump's consiglieres must have some diabolical dirty dirt on Saint Mikey.

OGBuzz

(828 posts)
59. The man has zero integrity and he's the House Speaker. Things will not go well in November.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 09:13 PM
Jun 9

There is no bottom for these people. I think you're right about the dirt.

ShazzieB

(23,055 posts)
86. I found myself watcbing his face closely whille he was talking.
Thu Jun 11, 2026, 12:42 AM
Jun 11

He eyes were shiftting from side to side like marbles in a pinball machine, lol. He also kept looking in different directions without seeming to make eye contact with anyone. (I could tell because his eyes never seemed to really focus, and he shifted back and forth between glancing at his audience and glancing down.) Such an obvious liar, and such disgraceful behavior from someone in that position.

You'd think I'd enjoy watching his awkwardness and discomfiture, but I didn't. It just made me feel twitchy!

EdmondDantes_

(2,254 posts)
9. We have the audits states do
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 05:02 PM
Jun 9

We have that there are protections in place to protect voting both through elected officials and poll workers. We have that all the claimed evidence people like the this will hold substack falls apart on looking closer. We have our success in down ticket and off cycle elections. We have that Biden won in 2020. We have that the elections were pretty close to pre election polls.

You have a gut feeling.

These don't deserve the same weight even if you want to say all of the above other than the audits are just circumstantial or inferential evidence.

OGBuzz

(828 posts)
11. States audited 2020 and Trump still denies that Biden won. As does pretty much every other MAGAt.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 05:08 PM
Jun 9

Anyhow, I was channelling Moses Mike Johnson from yesterday when he said that "diabolical" forces were at work in California and were responsible for eliminating Spencer Pratt from the LA mayoral race.

Dave says

(5,497 posts)
13. It holds as much evidentiary weight as trump's claim that he won 2020 except for the work of those "cheating Dems"
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 05:16 PM
Jun 9

Which means neither have sufficient weight.

mr715

(4,781 posts)
22. It is incredible Edmond that we can disagree in one thread and completely agree
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:16 PM
Jun 9

elsewhere.

Cheers.

MadameButterfly

(4,262 posts)
37. I think the OP was spoofing on Trump thinking his own gut feeling
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 07:06 PM
Jun 9

was enough to make the case for a stolen election. It's not like Dems haven't had plenty of reason to suspect skulduggery. We just don't try to charge anybody if we can't prove it. Then it looks like they are the only side with a complaint.

MadameButterfly

(4,262 posts)
87. True. The laws need to change so we can safely and effectively investigate
Thu Jun 11, 2026, 10:10 AM
Jun 11

more elections, and the rules need to be the same for both sides. Somehow Republicans get multiple recounts and get pardoned for compromising voting machines, and we didn't even get to recount Florida 2000.

FHRRK1

(197 posts)
12. I believe you are missing the point from the OP
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 05:13 PM
Jun 9

If they are going to state every Dem win is due to fraud, then it seems to be fair to put every Dem win into doubt.

OGBuzz

(828 posts)
24. 👍 It looks like my attempt at sarcasm completely failed with some.😂 I need to find one of those 'sarcasm' emojis
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:37 PM
Jun 9

before trying again in the future.

EdmondDantes_

(2,254 posts)
63. In my defense sarcasm is often hard to read online
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 11:49 AM
Jun 10

In your defense I've certainly thought something I wrote was obvious sarcasm and it didn't read that way to others. It's amazing how much body language plays into communication.

Kid Berwyn

(25,418 posts)
4. It'd be nice if the software was open for review.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 04:44 PM
Jun 9

For some reason, I have a problem with the fact the voting machine companies are owned by the Epstein Class.

PatSeg

(53,926 posts)
14. When we're dealing with grifters and cheaters,
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 05:19 PM
Jun 9

we have to remain "doubters". We know from experience that they WILL do whatever necessary to win. It doesn't matter if it is legitimate or not. We've seen this for many years now. If they can cheat, they will.

malaise

(299,367 posts)
15. THIS
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 05:23 PM
Jun 9

I know enough about stolen elections financed by local and foreign interests in this hemisphere.
I hope I live long enough to see evidence to justify my doubts.

Melon

(1,855 posts)
19. I feel like our system is broken at this point
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:09 PM
Jun 9

How can it take weeks to count votes? And then once it happens only a manual recount can audit? It’s crazy in this day and age. All of this should be fast and transparent to the general public. It should take days to digitally audit every vote against voter roles. Our system should never be so convoluted that it’s questionable by any party.

questionseverything

(12,194 posts)
31. Digital vote counting can not be transparent because no human being can see inside the computer
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:49 PM
Jun 9

Tim S

(358 posts)
7. Voting in the US should be MANDATORY like it is in Australia.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 05:00 PM
Jun 9

You decided to skip your obligation to help shape your government? Then you get fined… everytime you’re stupid enough to sit it out & just gripe that “they’re all bad”.

If voting were mandatory for everyone, then there would be a LOT less Republicans in office (and therefore a LOT less scheming). And the oligarchs would have a tougher time (finally!)

sarisataka

(22,982 posts)
10. If so many voters are anti-Republican
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 05:06 PM
Jun 9

why do they have to be ordered to vote?
Why are we failing to convince them their vote matters?

Tim S

(358 posts)
25. Opting out isn't a viable option.. The right to descent and choose a 3rd party is the way to express your opinion
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:37 PM
Jun 9

It might even break the two-party stranglehold that upsets many citizens and put us on the road to coalition governing in our congress (like most other countries)

mr715

(4,781 posts)
26. So, do you fine non-voters?
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:39 PM
Jun 9

When they sue on the grounds that they shouldn't be forced to reduce down their politics to a single checkbox, how do you litigate

Tim S

(358 posts)
32. I don't know how Australia does it (you're welcome to look it up) but...
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:56 PM
Jun 9

It makes sense to me to tie it in to another event that’s mandatory: paying our income taxes. If you don’t submit proof of voting (issued at the polling station or receipt for mail-in ballot) then you’d be liable for $1,000 as a tax fee. That’s for Federal. For states? Not all states have income tax so I don’t have anything for that.

Voting in primaries shouldn’t mandatory because some folks insist on not being in a party (i.e., not helping to select final candidates). But I think voting in general elections should be mandatory — force everyone into becoming part of the solution — some skin in the game — instead of being a do nothing complainer.

mr715

(4,781 posts)
34. How about make voting easy, incentivize it, and ritualize it
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:59 PM
Jun 9

I understand the spirit of what you are trying to do, but we aren't parliamentary like Australia.

States administer elections, right? So there would be 50 states with 50 different ways of doing things. Plus, you'd require people in Puerto Rico, Guam, etc. to vote without any representation?

Mandating voting is not feasible in our system

Tim S

(358 posts)
39. States are free to choose their Electors for the Electoral College as they be fit, but...
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 07:13 PM
Jun 9

There *are* some Federal regulations regarding Federal elections (like when Election Day is). I suppose NOT paying a $1,000 election fee to the IRS by submitting proof of voting is, by definition, incentive-based. Maybe I’m too old-school, but I still believe that voting is a responsibility of every citizen. We have, what, 40% turn out? Something like that.

If the oligarchy keeps going the way it is, big money will find a way to incentivize NOT-voting — paying people not to exercise their right to choose their government, If voting was mandatory, we could make that scenario impossible. (Kinda future-proofing ourselves from worsening conditions)

mr715

(4,781 posts)
40. Well, it'll take a Constitutional convention
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 07:16 PM
Jun 9

or a 13 seat Supreme Court to break the oligarchy now.

Mandatory voting, which is effectively state mandated speech, ain't going to survive here.

Tim S

(358 posts)
45. Agreed...
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 07:25 PM
Jun 9

I know courts consider voting as speech. Government mandated speech sounds pretty Orwellian, but then again, what happens if you refuse to swear an oath when subpoenaed to testify in a court of law? Isn’t that mandated speech? (I’m just being silly now)

mr715

(4,781 posts)
48. I don't know, honestly.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 07:29 PM
Jun 9

It is a tough question. I think the Constitutional answer is subpoenas compel you to show, but not to self incriminate.

As for oaths... it is problematic that we can put our hand on a Bible, or Quran, or Analects or whatever... I guess people "affirm" on secular texts.

Melon

(1,855 posts)
57. Interesting. You proposing a voting tax....
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 08:40 PM
Jun 9

No thanks. With freedom comes….freedom.
You do you boo. Forcing people to do things, even in the countries interest is unAmerican. Self determination is a thing.

Sympthsical

(11,258 posts)
18. Maybe folks can get with the Spencer Pratt people
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:08 PM
Jun 9

You know, compare notes. Share all this evidence that's apparently laying around everywhere.

Stephen Colbert used to make fun of this stuff. Truthiness, when you don't need facts, because you feel it in your gut.

kentuck

(115,975 posts)
20. As a corollary question...
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:13 PM
Jun 9

Would Trump cheat if he had the chance? I think we all know the answer to that question.

in2herbs

(4,644 posts)
21. There is proof. see below.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:16 PM
Jun 9

https://kaitjustice.substack.com/p/ivanka-trump-albania-epstein-kushner
Access the above link and then scroll down to Kait Justice’s May 21 post titled “The Gap in How America Detected Election Fraud I Found in the Epstein Files”.

flashman13

(2,620 posts)
33. I took a couple of statistics courses eons ago so I know a little about the subect.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 06:57 PM
Jun 9

The chances of winning seven swing states by margins just large enough not to trigger automatic recounts are damned near zero. That could happen in land slide elections like like Reagan vs Carter and Mondale or Nixon vs McGovern. In those elections none of the state margins were close. But 2024 was a 49/49% squeaker and I don't see any way there could have been a seven state sweep.

Think about it this way. They are called swing states because they could go either way. Coins are like that. Flip a coin and it could go either way. Flip a coin seven times. Odds are that you will get a 4 - 3 split. You might get a 5 - 2 split. Chances are very low that you will get a 6 - 1 split. Statistically speaking, the chances of a 7 - 0 split are damned near zero.

The Democrats should have challenged voting in the swing states. Yes, I know, they didn't want to sound like whiners. Now we are stuck with a raving lunatic for a President that whines everyday like a spoiled child.

mr715

(4,781 posts)
49. Misunderstanding predictive statistics.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 07:41 PM
Jun 9

A coin flip happening n times is n independent events.

States are not moving independently. PA, WI, and MI have a lot in common.



Edit: I think it is called Bayesian modelling. The question isn't the probability of having won or lost all 7 swing states. The question is the probability of winning X GIVEN you have won either PA or MI or NC or whatever.

mr715

(4,781 posts)
62. I am not making the extraordinary claim.
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 11:44 AM
Jun 10

So I am not burdened with providing extraordinary evidence.

I am saying that rather than asserting 88 swing counties moved in one direction, the correct statistical way of looking at it would be "Given that Trump won X, how likely is it that he would've won Y".

The answer is, btw, if you win 1 swing state you are likely to win all of them.

The probability of Trump winning Michigan was, I don't know, 45%?

The probability of Trump winning EVERY swing state IF he were to win Michigan would probably be 80-90%

Same logic applies to the Senate, though less rigorously and strictly because they are more independent. But if Collins wins Maine, we won't be winning the Senate. It isn't a question of GOP "sweeping" the Senate races. Its that in an environment where we lose our bluest state, we're going to end up losing them all.

questionseverything

(12,194 posts)
64. As Obama said, " we have to beat them so bad there can be no doubt "
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 11:57 AM
Jun 10

I believe in transparency in our elections and if that’s extraordinarily, I am proud to be guilty!

questionseverything

(12,194 posts)
67. I don't think even Obama won all of those 88 swing counties but
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 12:09 PM
Jun 10

We can’t change the past but we can use the knowledge to protect the future

Now you have the last word and then let’s try and save the country!

Deal?

Metaphorical

(2,670 posts)
79. Mathematician here
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 08:12 PM
Jun 10

Yes there is a certain amount of dependency between states, but it's not usually strong when populations are equally divided, especially with the votes all convenient falling JUST outside the threshold to invoke an automatic recount.

I think Hillary Clinton legitimately lost in 2016. There was a bruising primary, a lot of acrimony going into the Fall, and then Comey's FBI surprise three weeks before the election turned the tide in Trump's favour. Harris led pretty much since July 2024 in most polls, and turnout was very low at most of Trump's events. There was no significant event that should have changed that, yet somehow, Trump managed to come out five points ahead of where he had been polling all autumn. That can happen, of course, but Trump was a known (and largely hated) quantity.

I know some people get frustrated with the speed of counting paper ballots, but paper ballots provide an audit trail that electronic ballots don't. It is trivially simple to change votes in a database if the only records are electronic.

mr715

(4,781 posts)
80. Link provided.
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 08:40 PM
Jun 10
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

VP Harris was not polling ahead of Donald Trump. She was usually tied. This aggregator says her polling average was ~+2% in MI and tied completely in PA, as well as being behind in AZ, NC, and GA. These are all within margins of error.

My claim here is the outcome of 2024 election was due to a depressed turnout which was not accurately corrected for. Or I should probably more accurately say that a Trump voting more that is more mobilized than expected.

flashman13

(2,620 posts)
73. I stand by my analysis. The chances of all seven going Trump in 2024 by just enough to avoid recounts is very near zero,
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 06:45 PM
Jun 10

but not impossible.

I'm not sure I see the similarities between, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In the interest of looking for similarities, I examined Presidential elections since 2000. I found that in all seven races Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan all three voted for the same candidate in each race. In 2000 they voted for Gore, in 2004 they voted for Kerry, in 2008 and 2012 they voted for Obama, in 2016 Trump, in 2020 Biden, in 2024 again for Trump. Three times they voted for a winning Democrat and twice they they voted for a losing Democrat. I'm not sure why three states that voted reliably for Democrats five times voted for Trump twice. In 2016 Trump won by 0.2% in MI, 0.7% in PA, and 0.7% in WI. In 2024 Trump won by 1.42% in MI, 1.71% in PA, and 0.86% in WI. The only common denominator seems to be that they were willing to vote for a totally unqualified conman over two highly qualified women. Apparently all three states also favored a white woman over a black woman by significant margins.To me that is a scathing indictment of the American voter.

By contrast, in 2008 Obama won by 16.4% in MI, 10.3% in PA and 13.9% in WI. In 2012 Obama won by 9.5% in MI, 5.4% in PA, and 6.9% in WI. In all cases the margins were far larger than 2016 and 2024. It is interesting that Obama's margins in 2008 were far larger than in 2012. Could that have been a result of McCain's running mate being not only a woman, but in Palen's particular case, a dummy as well?

So the facts show that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan reliably vote Democratic, as long as the candidate is not a woman. They are not necessarily good predictors of the final winner.

mr715

(4,781 posts)
74. There is your statistical question...
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 06:57 PM
Jun 10

What is the probability that Trump will win swing states given that the Democrats run a woman?

flashman13

(2,620 posts)
84. Can a woman be elected President? I want to believe it can happen. It would be a great step forward for the country.
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 09:34 PM
Jun 10

I have been advocating for a woman President since college. If the occasion arises I will actively campaign for any woman candidate.

I myself am 100% ready to vote for AOC. She is smart, articulate and has moxie.

MichMan

(17,584 posts)
54. Statistically "damned near zero", is not the same as impossible
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 08:31 PM
Jun 9

The chance of flipping a coin and getting a 6-1 result is 5.47 %. The chance of getting a 7-0 result is 0.78%. Coin flips are completely independent of each other, so that isn't really a good analogy.

Barack Obama won nearly all the swing states in both 2008 & 2012 for example. Joe Biden in 2020 won the swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, & Nevada. Only one he lost was North Carolina. It isn't as statistically impossible as you think it is.

ShazzieB

(23,055 posts)
51. I don't see much point in speculating about those elections.
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 07:55 PM
Jun 9

I'm not saying you're right, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I honestly have no idea. I just think it's a moot point:

*Moot point describes a topic or issue that is debatable or arguable but that there is no foreseeable solution or answer to.

*Most people use moot point to indicate that continued discussions on the topic or issue at hand would be a waste of time because there will never be an agreement, or the topic simply doesn't matter anymore.

*You might also call a topic a moot point if you could talk about is indefinitely without ever reaching an agreement, answer, or solution.

*A moot point is a fact that doesn’t matter because it doesn’t apply or contribute to the current situation or topic.

Source: https://www.poised.com/blog/moot-point

In other words, like my mom would say if she were still alive, it's all water under the bridge. Whatever happened, happened; he got into office both times, and we're stuck with the resulting mess.

If he did steal both of those elections (and whether he did or not, I'm sure he wanted to), that's just 2 more items to add to the already encyclopedically long list of his high crimes and misdemeanors. It's frustrating, but everything to do with him is frustrating.

OGBuzz

(828 posts)
52. My original post was intended to be sarcasm in response to Mike Johnson's comments yesterday casting doubt
Tue Jun 9, 2026, 08:23 PM
Jun 9

on the primaries in California because their boy Spencer Pratt didn't make the cut for the LA mayoral race. JD Vance pretty much said the same. So for Republicans it's only a fair election if they win, otherwise the election must be rigged. Trump needs to learn about 'moot point' because he's been claiming the 2020 election was stolen for 6 years. Now he's got Todd Blanche at DoJ, and Bill Pulte managing 18 intelligence and security agencies, and I'm quite certain they'll get right on it.

ShazzieB

(23,055 posts)
69. Oh, sorry about that.
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 05:53 PM
Jun 10

I completely missed Johnson's comments (still don't know what he said), so your intent was lost on me.

Unfortunately, we do get posts here from time to time where people want to obsess about something that happened in the past. I mistook your post for one of those. Apologies for my confusion.

OGBuzz

(828 posts)
70. No worries.😃 IcyPeas posted the Johnson video if you're interested. Comment #50 in the thread. It's shocking.
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 06:30 PM
Jun 10

ShazzieB

(23,055 posts)
85. Thanks for pointing me to the video.
Thu Jun 11, 2026, 12:23 AM
Jun 11

I've been really curious about it and can't wait to watch it,

Polybius

(22,265 posts)
72. Reagan twice won by 7+ million votes, including these guys:
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 06:39 PM
Jun 10

Richard Nixon: 18m
Ronald Raegan: 17m
Lyndon Johnson: 16m
Franklin Delenor Roosevelt: 11m
Dwight Eisenhower: 9.5m
Barack Obama: 9m
Ronald Raegan: 8.5m
Bill Clinton: 8m
Calvin Coolidge: 7.5m
George H. W. Bush: 7m
Franklin Roosevelt: 7m
Joe Biden: 7m

https://www.quora.com/Has-any-US-President-ever-won-by-more-than-7-million-votes

BlueTsunami2018

(5,130 posts)
77. Whether he did or not, and I think not, it doesn't really matter.
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 07:02 PM
Jun 10

Because there he sits, ruining the world with his ruling class cabal, and no one does a thing about it.

People overestimate the intelligence and “goodness”, whatever the means, of Americans.

This is nasty country at heart and always has been.

Response to OGBuzz (Original post)

Seeking Serenity

(3,348 posts)
83. He's a traitor. His cabinet and staff are traitors. His financial backers are all traitors.
Wed Jun 10, 2026, 08:59 PM
Jun 10

Members of Congress that supported him are traitors.

What's the punishment for treachery?

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