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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Iranian war - what now
We would all agree that Trump made a big mistake in the original attack on Iran. He greatly underestimated Iran's ability to counter our maneuvers with their drones. He failed to listen to the warning of the Ukrainians about their drone technology, and their offer to help. He did not consult with allies, the American people or Congress. Now we have the situation with the strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program still in place, and regime change seems very remote. Negotiations don't seem to be going anywhere.
The leadership in Iran is irrational. They apparently think Allah wants them to destroy Israel and the US is the great Satan. They put this above the welfare of their own people.
The important question is, what do we do now! The administration is currently engaging in closing the strait of Hormuz themselves. That means Russia or China will not get oil from the region. I would not think that either of them wants Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. This could eventually influence them to put pressure on Iran to come to a settlement. It could also lead to World War III.
leftstreet
(41,066 posts)Cosmocat
(15,446 posts)1) They agreed to and were complying with the deal that BHO worked out.
2) Even before the start of this, it is being reported that they offered to return to an even more restrictive version of that thinking it would be acceptable because DT would crow about it, but the idiots (his son in law and Lutnick) didn't understand it.
David__77
(24,837 posts)everyonematters
(4,203 posts)David__77
(24,837 posts)Torchlight
(6,922 posts)He'll yell and spit about all the things he's going to do to them in two weeks and hope we've forgotten about it by then. I simply don't see him following through with anything more weighty than additional verbal tantrums.
D_Master81
(2,613 posts)They may be irrational but twice in the past year they have been bombed during negotiations. They would just see it as a pause before they get bombed again.
Cosmocat
(15,446 posts)nm
everyonematters
(4,203 posts)-misanthroptimist
(1,674 posts)There are four possible courses of action, IMO:
1. We continue as things are -bombing. That will achieve little to nothing, aside from further destruction. It is highly unlikely that Iran will surrender under this scenario. It will just go on until we run out of bombs. Of course, this will also crash the world economy.
2. Declare victory and withdraw. He had a reasonably credible opportunity to do this earlier on. But idiot man-child naturally passed. Doing it now will look pathetic.
3. Put boots on the ground. This looks futile as well. In this scenario it's likely that we'll end up fighting a guerilla war, or worse, end up setting the ME on fire in earnest.
4. Use nuclear weapons. This will achieve even less than continued bombing and turn most of the world against us. It will give Putin cover to use nukes in Ukraine, too. Others nuclear nations may join the party, too.
5. Remove idiot man-child from office and proceed rationally to withdraw and apologize. It's virtually impossible that Republicans will do this.
Unless Iran decides to surrender soon, I suspect #3 above is most likely. I hope to hell #4 isn't selected by idiot man-child...but he's always wanted to use one.