Judd Legum: The casino-fication of war

https://popular.info/p/the-casino-fication-of-war

On February 28, the United States and Israel began major combat operations in Iran. For some, the consequences of this action were fatal. By Monday, the war had claimed the lives of at least six U.S. soldiers, hundreds of people in Iran, and dozens more in neighboring Gulf states. The bombardment of Iran reportedly destroyed a girls’ primary school, killing about 150 people, the vast majority of them students. A spokesman for the U.S. military said CENTCOM takes the reports seriously and is “looking into“ the allegation.

For others, the beginning of the war was simply a money-making opportunity. In the hours before the strike, six newly-created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket raked in nearly $1 million by betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28.

Many observers, including the analytics site that first flagged the suspicious trades, suspect that the accounts benefited from insider knowledge. But it’s impossible to say for sure. The international version of Polymarket, where the bets were made, does not require users to identify themselves and accepts bets in crypto.

One such account, “dicedicedice,” made a single wager of nearly $30,000 that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. Hours later, the account recorded a profit of about $120,000.

Overall, “$529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes” on Polymarket, Bloomberg reported.

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