They basically ran polls in TX to show she has some support and she jumped in. They see her as an easier challenge.

That's why she jumped in. There is a lot of enthusiasm and energy in the Democratic turnout. Her candidacy is definitely playing a role in that.

If a lot of cons are crossing over to vote for someone they think will be a weaker opponent, then that could cut into Paxton’s support in the GOP primary.

Anyone who really cares which of their party's candidates wins is unlikely to cast a vote for the candidate in the opposing party they think weakest.

Genuine independents who don't favor one party or the other would seem to be a rare breed, but I would imagine they would take the ballot that lets them help their GE choice.

If you think about it, they can show a progressive Democratic firebrand, a moderate centrist Democrat, a conservative long term Republican Senator preserving Texas's seniority, or a scandal plaqued far right Trumpet. Everyone should have someone they can at least unenthusiastically support.

The last two polls have shown Jasmine Crockett leading with nearly every demographic. Talarico has a slight lead among White voters and Men voters.

In every poll conducted. All polls were pre-colbert. Im interested to see how more people knowing about him impacts their primary vote decision.

I'm sure it helped with donations and media coverage. How or if it impacted many voters in Texas, we don't know.

It worked. Obviously, hopefully it will backfire on the GOP in Texas this time around..

In Texas, you do not register to vote by party. Texas is an open primary each voting cycle but once you vote in one party's primary, you are locked into that party's primary for the rest of the two-year voting cycle. That means that if you vote in one party primary for the first round of voting, then you cannot vote in the other party primary for any runoff races. Many local races are non-partisan and there are no primaries but there are usually runoffs if no candidate gets a majority of the vote. There may have been some cross over voters in the past, but Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in about 30 years and so most people stay in their own party primary. Here there are competitive races in the US Senate seat for both parties and so I doubt that there is much crossover.

That said, in 2000 I voted in the GOP primary in Harris County because the judge in a case that I was working on was being challenged by the right-wing religious nut case who was challenging this judge because that judge was a female. The judge in my case had granted my side a summary judgment based on a fun contract theory that I came up with and we were in the appeal process. The RWNJ was supported by an asshole named Hotze who I have other stories about. At the time in Harris County, the winner of the GOP primary would generally win the general election. The judge that I supported won. The case came back to trial on a narrow issue after being on appeal for a couple of years. The case settled after some fun motions. Hotze is an asshole and the judge he was supporting was a real RWNJ who really believed that women should not hold places of authority over women.

In 2000, Gore was going to win the Texas primary and so I had no problem crossing over. In addition, I enjoyed voting for McCain over Bush. Again, there is no party registration in Texas. I voted in the Democratic primary on Monday of this week. The GOP Senate primary is really nasty with a ton of nasty ads on with all three GOP main candidates claiming in their ads that trump supports them. I doubt that any MAGA types crossed over but there are sane republicans who Texas who may have crossed over.

As of yesterday, the Democrats had far higher turnover than was normal in the primary.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

there is a lot of crossover voting occurring.

especially after Talarico had a breakout performance on Colbert. He's been gaining momentum and popularity. He's likeable and has a strong, solid message that plays well with not only democrats, but moderates and could get some disenchanted republican votes as well.

Jasmine Crockett has never won a competitive race. Her district is a safe blue district. James Talarico is the only candidate running who has successfully flipped a solid red district.

It is clear who republicans would vastly prefer to run against in November, and it isn't Talarico.

They have little enthusiasm left for Cornyn, and Paxton is mired in controversy between his scandals and his adultery. No appealing choices on their ticket no matter who advances. I think there are plenty of republicans who are crossing over right now and voting in our primary, trying to help fix the race to make sure Texas doesn't turn blue in November. We can't win without picking up votes from the middle. Our candidate HAS to have a message that appeals to independents, that crossover voters in a red state will want to vote for. There's just no other way to win in Texas. I think they're trying to fix the race.