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RandySF

(82,939 posts)
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 11:31 AM 5 hrs ago

TX-SEN: Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico by double digits in Senate Democratic primary, poll finds

Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has a double-digit lead over Austin state Rep. James Talarico in the final days of Texas’ Senate Democratic primary, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

In the survey, fielded from Feb. 2 to Feb. 16, Crockett garnered the support of 56% of voters, while Talarico got 44%. For the Democratic primary, pollsters from the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project surveyed a sample of 369 voters, producing a margin of error of +/-5.1 points.

As in other polls, Crockett had a massive advantage with Black voters, drawing 87% support. The Dallas congresswoman also led among seniors and voters without a college degree.

Talarico had a narrow advantage with white voters — winning them by only 6 percentage points — while Hispanic voters were a virtual tossup, with Crockett leading by 4 points.



https://www.texastribune.org/2026/02/25/texas-senate-poll-crockett-talarico-university-of-texas-paxton-cornyn-hunt-2026/

34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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TX-SEN: Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico by double digits in Senate Democratic primary, poll finds (Original Post) RandySF 5 hrs ago OP
I really like Rep. Crockett. lostincalifornia 5 hrs ago #1
I like both of them but hope she can Tree Lady 5 hrs ago #2
Surprisingly large lead newdeal2 5 hrs ago #3
Didnt read the details but I imagine they took leaners SSJVegeta 5 hrs ago #7
I like both but I feel like Talarico is the stronger GE candidate in that particular state. FascismIsDeath 5 hrs ago #4
Survey was from Feb 2-16. Colbert interviewed Talarico on Feb. 16. Probably different results now. nature-lover 5 hrs ago #5
Especially since they probably used leaners into the equation. SSJVegeta 5 hrs ago #8
I'm really interested to see polling taken after the interview pinkstarburst 5 hrs ago #10
K&R. This is encouraging to me Torchlight 5 hrs ago #6
This poll was done before Colbert pinkstarburst 5 hrs ago #9
Talarico's religiosity turns me off mike_c 4 hrs ago #11
Talarico only brings up religion to condemn the people who misuse SSJVegeta 4 hrs ago #12
True leftstreet 4 hrs ago #13
Here, here duckworth969 2 hrs ago #18
He is so far from any of those that it's not even funny pinkstarburst 2 hrs ago #20
It is turning off quite a few dems. mwmisses4289 2 hrs ago #19
I assume you also object to Rev Raphael Warnock? pinkstarburst 2 hrs ago #21
actually no-- but perhaps you can enlighten me? mike_c 1 hr ago #24
Let's see what polls say that include last week. themaguffin 4 hrs ago #14
I voted for her. Liberal In Texas 3 hrs ago #15
Mahalo! Cha 1 hr ago #25
Talarico should be the guy kwolf68 3 hrs ago #16
I am surprised by how many people pinkstarburst 2 hrs ago #23
+1 leftstreet 1 hr ago #26
Texas is only red (probably) because so many people don't vote. markodochartaigh 1 hr ago #29
Open primary lame54 36 min ago #33
TY... We'll see what the next Cha 3 hrs ago #17
Five million Democratic voters in Texas, and this poll samples 369 of them. Who? Where? DFW 2 hrs ago #22
I also would not bet the farm of this poll LetMyPeopleVote 1 hr ago #27
I think that there will be a strong bias towards Talarico markodochartaigh 1 hr ago #31
Jasmine Crockett seems like a fine representative for her district calguy 1 hr ago #28
Can we please be pragmatic here D_Master81 1 hr ago #30
Both are fighting an uphill battle in Texas fujiyamasan 38 min ago #32
I really hope Talarico wins Dem_4_Life 29 min ago #34

newdeal2

(5,154 posts)
3. Surprisingly large lead
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 11:48 AM
5 hrs ago

If it pans out in the primary election, then it was definitely a good thing that there was more than one candidate.

SSJVegeta

(2,613 posts)
7. Didnt read the details but I imagine they took leaners
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 11:59 AM
5 hrs ago

In that scenario pepple likely just chose the only person they knew of between the two of they didnt have a preference.

It was taken before the colbert thing blew up, so any poll afterwards would be a much better reflection of where the race likely stands.

nature-lover

(1,860 posts)
5. Survey was from Feb 2-16. Colbert interviewed Talarico on Feb. 16. Probably different results now.
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 11:54 AM
5 hrs ago

SSJVegeta

(2,613 posts)
8. Especially since they probably used leaners into the equation.
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 12:00 PM
5 hrs ago

Last edited Wed Feb 25, 2026, 01:42 PM - Edit history (1)

That would always favor the one with name recognition.

Torchlight

(6,642 posts)
6. K&R. This is encouraging to me
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 11:55 AM
5 hrs ago

as I lean toward her leadership and vision. That said, I respect both candidates and would be glad to support either Talarico or Crockett if they win the nomination. I'm confident either strengthens our voice going forward.

mike_c

(36,990 posts)
11. Talarico's religiosity turns me off
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 12:34 PM
4 hrs ago

Once checked, that box usually stays checked. Candidates can't unreligion themselves once they've gone there, and Talarico went there right out of the gate. Ugh.

SSJVegeta

(2,613 posts)
12. Talarico only brings up religion to condemn the people who misuse
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 12:47 PM
4 hrs ago

It.

And to make points that reinforce why the separation of church is so important. He in no way has ever preached that his religion is in any way superior to others, and is a fierce advocate for keeping the ten commandments out of classrooms and maintaining the clear line between church and state.

leftstreet

(39,839 posts)
13. True
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 12:55 PM
4 hrs ago

I was VERY *cringe* the first time I heard his focus on religion. But after following his socials and watching rally clips, it was clear he's trying to correct a false narrative. And apparently he and his people know it's a powerful narrative for the voters he's trying to reach, and informs their decisions.

I would HATE it, but I'm not from that area

duckworth969

(1,329 posts)
18. Here, here
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 02:40 PM
2 hrs ago

When it’s crunch time, we can’t have another Manchin, Fetterman, or Sinema mucking up the works.

Go for the sure thing, not a guy who thumps the bible.

pinkstarburst

(1,955 posts)
20. He is so far from any of those that it's not even funny
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 02:47 PM
2 hrs ago

James Talarico is the real deal. This is like saying we need to get rid of Rev. Raphael Warnock because "we want to go for the sure thing, not the guy who thumps the bible." LOL.

mwmisses4289

(3,754 posts)
19. It is turning off quite a few dems.
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 02:44 PM
2 hrs ago

That said, many of these same dems are indicating that if he ends up winning the primary, they will vote for him in November. He's definitely a whole lot better than cornyn or cruz!

pinkstarburst

(1,955 posts)
21. I assume you also object to Rev Raphael Warnock?
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 02:48 PM
2 hrs ago

Some of the comments in this thread amaze me.

mike_c

(36,990 posts)
24. actually no-- but perhaps you can enlighten me?
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 03:24 PM
1 hr ago

If Warnock explicitly weaves religion into his political discourse then yes, I would find that terribly off-putting, but if he does I'm not aware of it. I did not pay particular attention to Georgia politics while he was initially campaigning, so I just don't have enough information. Did he run on the Jesus ticket?

I don't reject candidates simply for having their own religious faith. Everyone is entitled to their opinions, even regarding invisible sky daddies. It's the ones who rub everyone's noses into their personal religious dogma or use religion as justification for public policy that get under my skin. Or as a public focus of their candidacy. I don't care who or what they worship, but talking about it all the time makes me question whether they extend the same courtesy to everyone else. I just don't want to hear it in a secular forum.

Liberal In Texas

(16,150 posts)
15. I voted for her.
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 01:48 PM
3 hrs ago

I think Talarico needs to run for a US House seat and do that for a couple of years.
He's going to be a name to be reconnected with he certainly gets out there. But not senate in this one.
That said, if he's nominated I'll fully support him.

kwolf68

(8,402 posts)
16. Talarico should be the guy
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 01:53 PM
3 hrs ago

I love Crockett, but this is not a pragmatic choice. Not in Texas. Can't we make some practical choices? Please.

pinkstarburst

(1,955 posts)
23. I am surprised by how many people
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 02:57 PM
2 hrs ago

are blind to this fact after the 2016 and 2024 elections. We couldn't win based on being unable to overcome sexism (and racism) in SWING states in those two elections, and people are talking like red state Texas is going to elect a Black woman.

And even more crazy, people are in this thread saying Talarico speaking about his religion (only in a positive way, that seeks to say how religious fundamentalism has been used by politics to overreach and that it needs to be separate) is going to play badly in Texas. This state has a lot of moderate and conservative voters. It is more than 80% Hispanic and white and those voters trend conservative. If Jasmine wins the primary, she CANNOT win the general without picking up votes from the middle. She simply cannot.

Jasmine has never won a competitive race. She has always run in safe blue districts. James Talarico is the only candidate who has actually FLIPPED a solid red district to win his seat.

Whoever wins will have my vote in the general, but it's going to be a long road and I think some people are thinking with hope in their eyes rather than pragmaticism.

leftstreet

(39,839 posts)
26. +1
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 03:38 PM
1 hr ago

I suspect the tried and true lazy politics of Us vs Them would like to ignore some of his powerful talks that are resonating with Texans. He does a LOT of class politics. Good for him!


?s=20

markodochartaigh

(5,333 posts)
29. Texas is only red (probably) because so many people don't vote.
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 03:58 PM
1 hr ago

Texas has one of the highest rates of non-voters in the country. Certainly having a Black Democratic woman on the ballot will galvanize the 56% of Texans who voted against Harris. And, of course, Texas has been hard at work trying to decrease voter turnout over the last year. (People who say that gerrymandering doesn't affect state wide races neglect to consider the suppressive effect of gerrymandering).
Jasmine Crockett is electric and incredibly charismatic to left-leaning and educated voters, but those voters vote anyway. The test is whether she can motivate disengaged, apathetic voters who mostly care only about their own hamberders and sportsball. I wish that I could say that I had enough faith in Texans to believe that she could.

Cha

(318,063 posts)
17. TY... We'll see what the next
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 02:18 PM
3 hrs ago

poll says. I love Jasmine Crockett, btw!

I hope she wins the GE!

DFW

(59,985 posts)
22. Five million Democratic voters in Texas, and this poll samples 369 of them. Who? Where?
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 02:53 PM
2 hrs ago

I guess it's an indication, but it's just one of many, and I wouldn't count on it to necessarily reflect statewide Democratic voter sentiment. I'd be skeptical of a poll sampling 3000 random voters. With 369 voters, just seven people constitute 2% of the voters sampled. If it turns out to be accurate, kudos to them, but I still wouldn't bet the farm on it.

LetMyPeopleVote

(177,880 posts)
27. I also would not bet the farm of this poll
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 03:45 PM
1 hr ago

Polling Texas is hard because Texas is such a large state with a very diverse voting population.

I voted for Talerico but would happily support Crockett

markodochartaigh

(5,333 posts)
31. I think that there will be a strong bias towards Talarico
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 04:04 PM
1 hr ago

in the primary simply because so many people believe that Crockett can't win the general. The last two people in our family who haven't left Texas, my sister and nephew, both voted for Talarico because they thought Crockett couldn't win. And my nephew is absolutely allergic to religion.

calguy

(6,120 posts)
28. Jasmine Crockett seems like a fine representative for her district
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 03:53 PM
1 hr ago

and I don’t claim to have any knowledge about the current political climate in Texas, but the way I’ve seen Texas vote in the past few decades, a black female, no matter how good she might be, isn’t going to fly in a statewide election with rednecks and bigots.

D_Master81

(2,451 posts)
30. Can we please be pragmatic here
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 04:00 PM
1 hr ago

We all can love Jasmine Crockett and admit she is great for her district but it’s quite likely she is not going to win in the general in a state wide election. This is Texas we are talking about and unfair or not I just don’t see that state electing a black woman to the Senate. Talarico reminds me a lot of Beto, in that he can appeal to the swing voters and even Beto couldn’t win in 2 tries. This is a situation where we can really put the Republicans on the defensive in a red state or give them a mild scare.

fujiyamasan

(1,478 posts)
32. Both are fighting an uphill battle in Texas
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 04:46 PM
38 min ago

2018 was the closest democrats have come to winning a statewide race in over thirty years. Beto lost by 2.6 points, but even that was over 200,000 votes.

Texas is huge and still very conservative. I think Crockett faces a greater challenge outside of her urban stronghold. She’ll win the major cities, but likely struggle elsewhere, including the border towns which will be critical to winning the race.

Right now, I think there are more winnable senate seats. I honestly would be stunned if crocket somehow won the race, even against a truly depraved corrupt scum bag like Paxton. Paxton is truly peak Texas republican in terms of everything rotten.

Dem_4_Life

(1,777 posts)
34. I really hope Talarico wins
Wed Feb 25, 2026, 04:55 PM
29 min ago

He has a better chance of winning the general election outside of urban areas. Her campaign has been very negative and left a bad taste in my mouth. I used to love her but now not so much.

If you watch Talarico’s YouTube videos how he handles Republican’s in the Texas House it is a great representation how he would be in the senate.

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