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bigtree

(93,832 posts)
Tue Feb 24, 2026, 11:01 AM 4 hrs ago

A president lying the country into war, again

Peter Baker @peterbakernyt
Trump, July 19: "All three nuclear sites in Iran were completely destroyed and/or OBLITERATED. It would take years to bring them back into service."

Witkoff, Sunday: "They're probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material."


07/19/25
Trump doubles down on claim Iran strike ‘completely destroyed’ nuclear sites

“All three nuclear sites in Iran were completely destroyed and/or OBLITERATED. It would take years to bring them back into service and, if Iran wanted to do so, they would be much better off starting anew, in three different locations, prior to those sites being obliterated, should they decide to do so,” Trump said in a Saturday morning post on Truth Social.

A new intelligence assessment, reported by multiple news outlets on Thursday, indicates that Iran’s nuclear enrichment site in Fordow was mostly destroyed during the June 21 strikes, but the two other principal sites — Natanz and Isfahan — were not and could potentially resume enriching uranium if Tehran greenlights it.

The Defense Department, along with the White House, pushed back on the assessment, contending that the airstrikes, carried out by B-2 bombers and submarines firing Tomahawk cruise missiles, destroyed all three facilities.

“The credibility of the Fake News Media is similar to that of the current state of the Iranian nuclear facilities: destroyed, in the dirt, and will take years to recover,” the department’s chief spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement. “President Trump was clear and the American people understand: Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz were completely and totally obliterated.”

“There is no doubt about that,” he added.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5409923-trump-iran-nuclear-facilities-destroyed/



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bigtree

(93,832 posts)
2. an internet analysis
Tue Feb 24, 2026, 11:15 AM
3 hrs ago

...based on what, the Trump administration's reports?

Trump's utter lack of credibility, on Iran or anything else, hinders us from having a fact-based discussion of the threat, or even the military actions taken, much less the intelligence assessments.

We can talk all we want about what's real, and then there's reconciling all that with Trump's words and actions which are dog-wagging, epstein-dodging, demented fuckery.

bigtree

(93,832 posts)
5. I thought the criteria for attacking them was whether they were weaponized
Tue Feb 24, 2026, 11:40 AM
3 hrs ago

...operational, or had anything to do with making bombs.

Not just that they existed.

But, I get that this is the Trump era, where they can just point to something and claim it's a threat.

Greg_In_SF

(1,105 posts)
6. Do you actually think
Tue Feb 24, 2026, 11:46 AM
3 hrs ago

Iran is not attempting to make bombs?

Do you think Iran should have nuclear weapons?

bigtree

(93,832 posts)
8. do you know anything about how we managed that possibility without bogus claims and threats
Tue Feb 24, 2026, 12:22 PM
2 hrs ago

...and how Trump tore up the agreement in favor of this gaslighting opportunism where he uses our nation's military defenses like pawns?

I mean you talk about this as if there was some solid intel on their enrichment that we could point to as proof that we need to act as precipitously as Trump has and apparently plans to again.

You're barking up the wrong tree expecting me to flinch just because they have a nuclear program. It's not even the point here. The assessment made when we had responsible people involved used to be that waging war with Iran was counterproductive to the effort to restrain them from weaponizing their program.

Trump decided that acting like a cowboy was smarter, and Iran not only hid their program from us, but it's underground, and likely mobile now that the U.S. has decided to treat Iran as if we're mobilizing to wage war against them.

All that the bullying and bluster from Trump has done is escalate any threat, and increased the likelihood Iran would act precipitously against the U.S. or, more likely, our allies in the region in response.

That threat equation isn't any different from the one that other presidents who preceded Trump have assessed and responded to with efforts short of a destabilizing war.

The question you should be asking is what evidence is there that Trump's rhetoric and actions are doing anything more than deepening Iran's resolve to weaponize it's nuclear program beyond the energy needs that they insist their nuclear program is all about?

More than that, what evidence is there that Iran's nuclear program has been hindered in any significant way by destabilizing airstrikes? It's not as if the risk-assessment of U.S. military strikes is some zero-sum enterprise that would definitely end their nuke ambitions or ability.

Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said that there is a risk that the stockpile "could be diverted either to a covert program or stolen by a faction of the government or the military that wanted to retain the option of weaponization."

She said that this risk increases as the Iranian government feels threatened or gets destabilized.

Some of the nuclear material could get smuggled out of Iran or sold to non-state actors in the event of internal chaos or potential government collapse, Davenport said.

"The risk is real but it is difficult to assess, given the unknowns regarding the status of the materials and the whereabouts," she stressed.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/analysts-warn-that-the-iran-crisis-carries-potential-nuclear-risks-heres-what-to-know


...the dilemma for the U.S. here is that Iran would likely opt for a military response if their entire nuclear capibility was cut off or seriously diminished. It doesn't serve this process well to just ignore that bottom line expressed by Iran in negotiations as recently as last month.

The problem with just viewing this as some security threat is that it invites a military response which appears to be a path to exacerbating the threat, not assuaging it.

You have to wonder about concern that just relies on that fear of Iran nuclear weapons, and assumes that concern makes every other fall in line with that expectation of defending ourselves militarily against what Trump is presently almost mindlessly escalating - even as his own negotiators are talking with Iran about much more than inanities like, ' (is) Iran attempting to make bombs,' or, 'do we think Iran should have nuclear weapons?'

The U.S. still hasn't cured itself of the false notion that military force can solve every perceived threat to the nation if we just bear down hard enough and blow more things up.

How's that been working out for us, so far?

Greg_In_SF

(1,105 posts)
9. What good is a nuclear
Tue Feb 24, 2026, 12:36 PM
2 hrs ago

agreement if they never let anyone in to do inspections as laid out in the agreement?

bigtree

(93,832 posts)
11. better than war, at least at the point Trump unilaterally broke the agreement
Tue Feb 24, 2026, 01:16 PM
1 hr ago

...and deliberately put us in this muddle where he can just make shit up as he flails our nation's defenses at Iran, doing little but escalating the situation.

Not a zero-sum enterprise and no assurance that bombing this, or that, is solving anything.

Besides:

On February 15, however, Iran's National Security chief Ali Larijani told Al Jazeera that the IAEA "can monitor all Iranian facilities. We accept the controls under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty."

Larijani added it would be unrealistic to expect a country that had mastered the technical knowhow to completely give up uranium enrichment. He pointed to the need for uranium for civilian purposes, including cancer treatment. In Tehran, a research reactor still produces cancer medication using uranium enriched to 20%.

https://www.dw.com/en/united-states-and-iran-at-impasse-after-geneva-nuclear-talks/a-76023932



How say you, war or not?'

'Not war, if possible, O king,' I said,

'Lest from the abuse of war,
The desecrated shrine, the trampled year,
The smouldering homestead, and the household flower
Torn from the lintel--all the common wrong--
A smoke go up through which I loom to her
Three times a monster: now she lightens scorn
At him that mars her plan, but then would hate
(And every voice she talked with ratify it,
And every face she looked on justify it)
The general foe. More soluble is this knot,
By gentleness than war. I want her love.
What were I nigher this although we dashed
Your cities into shards with catapults,
She would not love;--or brought her chained, a slave,
The lifting of whose eyelash is my lord,
Not ever would she love; but brooding turn
The book of scorn, till all my flitting chance
Were caught within the record of her wrongs,
And crushed to death: and rather, Sire, than this
I would the old God of war himself were dead,
Forgotten, rusting on his iron hills,
Rotting on some wild shore with ribs of wreck,
Or like an old-world mammoth bulked in ice,
Not to be molten out.'

--Tennyson

leftstreet

(39,813 posts)
3. A week away? That means you're painting it
Tue Feb 24, 2026, 11:17 AM
3 hrs ago


Fully operational nukes in less than 7 months. These brilliant scientists and engineers should apply themselves to making something actually useful

bigtree

(93,832 posts)
7. there's the actual nuclear threat, and there's the WH's rhetorical description of an eliminated threat
Tue Feb 24, 2026, 11:54 AM
3 hrs ago

“It knocked out their entire potential nuclear capacity.” (July 16)
“It’s been obliterated.” (July 31)
“We obliterated … the future nuclear capability of Iran.” (August 18)
“But I also obliterated Iran’s nuclear hopes, by totally annihilating their enriched uranium.”  September 20)
“Well, they don’t have a nuclear program. It was obliterated.” (October 13)
“… completely obliterated Iran’s nuclear capability.” (November 11)
“It was called Iran and its nuclear capability, and we obliterated that very quickly and strongly and powerfully.” (November 19)
“We obliterated their nuclear capability.” (December 11)
“We knocked out the Iran nuclear threat, and it was obliterated.” (January 8)
“… obliterated Iran’s nuclear enrichment capability.” (January 20)
“… achieving total obliteration of the Iran nuclear potential capability — totally obliterated.” (February 13)

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/24/politics/nuclear-program-iran-trump-strike

..now we're back to Trump gaslighting nuclear war; literally threatening to ignite the fuse based on bogus intel - this after tearing up the agreement and program where we monitored it, making room for this game where Trump deploys our nation's defenses based on his autocratic will and whim.

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