General Discussion

Polybius

(21,720 posts) Sat Feb 21, 2026, 09:44 PM Saturday

It's been 14 years since a sitting US Senator lost their primary

That was when Richard Lugar was defeated in the 2012 Republican primary by Richard Mourdock. Technically, Luther Strange lost the special election primary to Roy Moore in 2017, but he was recently appointed. Joe Lieberman was the last Democrat to lose his primary (in the 2006 Democratic primary, which he lost to to Ned Lamont).

So, why am I talking about this? Because it's gonna happen again next Tuesday (March 3rd). John Cornyn is going to lose to Ken Paxton. Should be an interesting campaign to say the least.

12 replies

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It's been 14 years since a sitting US Senator lost their primary (Original Post) Polybius Saturday OP

Won't count until the runoff Renew Deal Saturday #1

Runoff is the day after Memorial Day. there is a school of thought which predicts Cornyn yellowdogintexas Saturday #2

Are there any polls showing Cornyn in danger of finishing 3rd? Renew Deal Saturday #3

I have not seen details of polls (which doesn't mean there aren't any) yellowdogintexas Yesterday #5

Yes, but it's from February 5th Polybius Yesterday #10

Wow. That would be crazy Renew Deal Yesterday #11

Honestly, I only know about John Cornyn and Ken Paxton Polybius Yesterday #12

And the fucking asshole voters of Texas edhopper Saturday #4

now those polls are saying not. Paxton is running best in their primary but both Democrats yellowdogintexas Yesterday #6

I don't trust your State edhopper Yesterday #8

It could happen blogslug Yesterday #7

I hope Cornyn wins JI7 Yesterday #9

Renew Deal

(84,840 posts)

1. Won't count until the runoff

Reply to Polybius (Original post)

Sat Feb 21, 2026, 09:46 PM

Saturday

Which is after next week

yellowdogintexas

(23,655 posts)

2. Runoff is the day after Memorial Day. there is a school of thought which predicts Cornyn

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 21, 2026, 10:01 PM

Saturday

will not make the runoff. One candidate has to get 51% of the vote to avoid a primary, otherwise the top two will compete in the runoff. It is going to be interesting.

Renew Deal

(84,840 posts)

3. Are there any polls showing Cornyn in danger of finishing 3rd?

Reply to yellowdogintexas (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 21, 2026, 10:14 PM

Saturday

I haven't seen anything like that.

yellowdogintexas

(23,655 posts)

5. I have not seen details of polls (which doesn't mean there aren't any)

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #3)

Sun Feb 22, 2026, 12:20 AM

Yesterday

but the YouTube folks are projecting that he will in face have to really scramble to make second.

Polybius

(21,720 posts)

10. Yes, but it's from February 5th

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #3)

Sun Feb 22, 2026, 10:38 AM

Yesterday

https://nypost.com/2026/02/05/us-news/texas-republican-senate-primary-locked-in-three-way-statistical-tie-between-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-and-wesley-hunt-poll/

J.L. Partners found 27.0% of likely voters supported Paxton, 25.7% backed Hunt, and 25.5% would cast a ballot for Cornyn if the election were held today. Another 21.7% were unsure of whom they would support.

Renew Deal

(84,840 posts)

11. Wow. That would be crazy

Reply to Polybius (Reply #10)

Sun Feb 22, 2026, 10:46 AM

Yesterday

Are the choices basically extremism, fresh face, status quo?

That’s always a tough one for status quo when people are unhappy.

Polybius

(21,720 posts)

12. Honestly, I only know about John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #11)

Sun Feb 22, 2026, 12:17 PM

Yesterday

I know nothing about Wesley Hunt. I'm curious if he is to Cornyn's left or right, or if he's about the same, only younger at 44. Here's his pic:

edhopper

(37,235 posts)

4. And the fucking asshole voters of Texas

Reply to Polybius (Original post)

Sat Feb 21, 2026, 10:18 PM

Saturday

will put a man who should have been convicted in the Senate.

yellowdogintexas

(23,655 posts)

6. now those polls are saying not. Paxton is running best in their primary but both Democrats

Reply to edhopper (Reply #4)

Sun Feb 22, 2026, 12:29 AM

Yesterday

are currently running ahead of Paxton. It's a long way to November

edhopper

(37,235 posts)

8. I don't trust your State

Reply to yellowdogintexas (Reply #6)

Sun Feb 22, 2026, 09:25 AM

Yesterday

it's always Lucy with the football for the Dems.

blogslug

(39,129 posts)

7. It could happen

Reply to Polybius (Original post)

Sun Feb 22, 2026, 12:44 AM

Yesterday

Man, I don't know what to think. John Cornyn is awful, awful but if he won the primary he would probably beat either Talarico or Crockett in the general.

Ken Paxton is nasty and mean nobody likes him. Our chances of beating him are promising.

All I will say is Angela Paxton has the opportunity to do the funniest thing.

JI7

(93,407 posts)

9. I hope Cornyn wins

Reply to Polybius (Original post)

Sun Feb 22, 2026, 10:04 AM

Yesterday

The people of Texas voted for Trump so I don't think the democrsts have a better chance against Paxton. So if we lose .....

But I'm hoping enough Republicans will just be too angry to vote in November.

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