A 12% chance isn't exactly high, but the idea of an immediate recall is peak California. I remember the last recall attempt being such a circus with like fifty people on the ballot. If this happens, the chaos will be endless.

There are over a dozen Dem candidates and only three Republicans, plus several third party/independents.

Mathematically, and strategically every Dem candidate except for Swallwell and Porter should drop out of the race as soon as possible.