General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe 'suckerification' economy

A dominant theme of life during the waning days of 2025 is that the economy feels a lot like a casinoor at least is suffused with the spirit of gambling. In a mature attention economy, people are vying for eyeballs, posting over and over again, hoping to hit an algorithmic jackpot. Meme stocks, crypto speculation, sports bettingall these varieties of wagering have become more popular in recent years, in part because they are an escape hatch for people who feel stuck or like theyve lost access to the normal pathways to progress and financial security.
One of the emergent and growing elements of this cultural casino is prediction markets. These platforms let people wager on elections, award shows, the most trivial internet ephemera, and more, framing bets as tradable shares that rise and fall like stocks. With billions in weekly trading volume, massive new funding rounds, and even a CNN partnership with Kalshi, a leading prediction-market platform, this type of betting is quickly moving from a niche curiosity to a mainstream-media fixture. Recently, Kalshis CEO told a crowd at a financial conference that the long-term vision of his company is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion. Tech CEOs always talk a big game, and yet this feels like a perfect example of the extractive hyper-growth mindset that plagues not only Silicon Valley, but our culture, economy, and politics in general.
So todays Galaxy Brain episode is about prediction markets. Im joined by writer Max Read, who argues that prediction markets sit at the intersection of gambling, finance, and a broader suckerification economy aimed at young men. He helps me understand whether the markets actually reflect the wisdom of crowds or whether theyre little more than a meta-game of vibes, ideology, and misvalued dumb money. Prediction markets may promise clarity, but what they really offer is another way to feel excitement in a world that seems rigged.


https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/2025/12/prediction-markets-and-the-suckerifcation-crisis-with-max-read/685330/
https://archive.ph/Tifq7
flvegan
(65,753 posts)it's all how these "prediction markets" will game the users to lose, or those with better info to win (see insider trading, our congress knows that pretty well).
And for the last (not) fucking time, "it's a big club, and you ain't in it"
markodochartaigh
(5,008 posts)Investment requires actual facts and figures in order to determine the value of an investment. Investments give returns which can be predicted fairly accurately. Speculation is more based on belief and returns are consequently much less predictable. The Fed flooding the economy with easy money for decades has caused the return on investment of actual investments to plummet as the value of the assets spiral upward. This easy money has crowded out investment and fueled speculation.
Hugin
(37,410 posts)If you arent in it before you have heard about it, youre too late.
Years ago, I inadvertently stepped into a couple of speculation schemes. I get multiple robocalls a day trying to claw it back.
Sweet Rosie Red
(4 posts)Just sayin .