More redistricting bad news for Republicans: Texas may not net five GOP seats like they planned

The Republican plans to pick off five Democratic-held congressional seats in Texas once seemed like a sure thing. Not anymore.

President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, particularly among Latinos, and strong Democratic performance in this year’s special elections have changed both parties’ assumptions. Now, the cushion the Texas GOP drew into its new map – Trump won every Republican-favored district by 10 points or more a year ago – seems like it might be too small.

Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five US House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance at that level next year would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column, though it’s unlikely that performance will be replicated in every district around the country, and recent polling suggests that Democrats currently have a more modest national advantage.

“I can feel it on the ground,” said Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, whose South Texas district was one of the five targeted by Republicans. “I really anticipate us taking the majority back next cycle and winning back South Texas and places that had been traditional Democratic districts that have turned on us in the last few cycles, with so many disillusioned people.”




https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/14/politics/texas-redistricting-gop-latinos