And the reality.

Jasmine Crockett is formidable. However, James Talarico is an exceptional candidate tailor-made to meet the current crisis. He stands out because he has a powerful, compelling, message against Christian Nationalism from the perspective of a devout Christian -- a message that is resonating.

At a time when almost every UnAmerican, UnChristian, Immoral, and Intolerable goal of the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 Christian Nationalist agenda is being implemented by an insane, and wildly unpopular regime, James Talarico is a unique voice that is taking on Christian Nationalism EFFECTIVELY. He is laser-focused on perhaps the biggest threat we face in a way that Crockett just can't compete with.

I wish Ms. Crockett had chosen to put her considerable gifts to work on the campaign trail for Democratic House and Senate Candidates across this country in 2026, and then run for Ted Cruz's office in 2029.

And Talarico has a serious shot.

Don't forget that in 2018, Beto lost to Cruz by a mere 2.6%. In 2024, Cruz only won by 8.5% -- and that was at the peak of MAGA's strength. In less than a year, the coalition that put the felon in the White House has completely collapsed.

I think Talarico is an incredibly strong candidate perfectly suited for the times. Trump is wildly unpopular. And Christian Nationalist overreach is pissing more and more people off. For example, in November a number of school board candidates swept into office by the "bathroom wars" were swept back out of office as communities saw how these crazies disrupted their schools (and people really don't like chaos and nonsense in their local schools). As a former teacher, quality education is a top issue -- and he has been hammering the Texas Christian Nationalist billionaires that are stealing money from public schools to fund Christian Nationalist private education.

There are many indicators that Democrats have gained something like 7 to 13 points so far this year, which makes Cruz's margin of 8.5 relatively slender.













Related post (incredible sermon from Talarico in 2023)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=20849852

Crocket won't win a statewide race in Texas even in this climate. I was disappointed to learn she was going to run. I had the same feeling with the TN 07 race. A Centrist male candidate would have had a much better chance to flip the ruby red district. While she overperformed (losing by only 9 points) that was to be expected in this anti-Trump/GOP environment. Running far left candidates is just not a good idea in ruby red districts. I'm hoping that AOC doesn't run for POTUS. The country isn't ready and probably never will be.

With regard to TN-07, overperforming by 14 points and yet still losing by about 9% doesn't necessarily mean someone more ideologically aligned with the district would've done better. There is a saturation effect and Rep. Behn did about as well as should have possibly done, structurally. A moderate, I don't think, would've done better.

There is also very real possibility that Behn's energetic and ideologically bold campaign drove up turnout and when turnout is up, Democrats do better.

I strongly expect Rep. Crockett to lose. But I don't know, I don't have a crystal ball. I am disappointed that her house seat was redistricted.

Sec. Clinton has a lot of infrastructure there and her campaign thought it was on the table.

I don't think Rep. Crockett is going to win, but I don't think a Democrat can win there unless they are truly magic.