General Discussion

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts) Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:14 PM Dec 2

TN 7- based on current partial returns, Behn is overperforming 2024 D results by around 20%

Last edited Wed Dec 3, 2025, 01:33 AM - Edit history (3)

If this trend sticks, she might win. 🤞

(Green -R, won by 21.5%)

Im optimistic, but Nate Cohn notes that early votes are going to be substantially more D leaning than the votes counted later. So we will see.

Edit: with most votes counted, Behn loses by about 8-10%. Still is an overperformance to 2024 by 10-14% depending on the final outcome without even near the level of fundraising folks like Weil and Valmont pulled in the FL specials.

I am looking forward to The Great Dummymander of 2026.

52 replies

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TN 7- based on current partial returns, Behn is overperforming 2024 D results by around 20% (Original Post) SSJVegeta Dec 2 OP

That's good news MustLoveBeagles Dec 2 #1

First returns in montgomery show her ahead by 3% SSJVegeta Dec 2 #3

Stupid hopium SSJVegeta Dec 2 #46

She is soaring on predictit right now for whatever Tribetime Dec 2 #10

That didn't last long FBaggins Dec 2 #23

Excellent! SheltieLover Dec 2 #2

No returns from Nashville...either Demsrule86 Dec 2 #4

I mean unless im crazy I cant see van epps making up a huge amount of ground with 50% of the vote left in the reddest SSJVegeta Dec 2 #5

Sorry to be pessimistic mr715 Dec 2 #6

If this trend sticks she will SSJVegeta Dec 2 #7

What are you basing this on? mvd Dec 2 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author SSJVegeta Dec 2 #11

Shes overperformingnin Davidson County by almost 50%?? SSJVegeta Dec 2 #13

It is possible. mr715 Dec 2 #26

she should demand a recount azureblue Dec 2 #50

This message was self-deleted by its author MarineCombatEngineer Dec 2 #9

If last months results Boo1 Dec 2 #12

NYTimes......D-Behn 37,556.....R-Van Epps 33,185 44%of the vote in. a kennedy Dec 2 #14

This message was self-deleted by its author Gaytano70 Dec 2 #15

I think it might be over SSJVegeta Dec 2 #16

Only 42% of the votes are in mucifer Dec 2 #18

This message was self-deleted by its author Gaytano70 Dec 2 #19

Not what Chris Hayes is saying on MSNBC mucifer Dec 2 #21

Its actually flipped. I also kinda misread the chart. SSJVegeta Dec 2 #24

Not in red counties SSJVegeta Dec 2 #22

This message was self-deleted by its author Celerity Dec 2 #20

Yeeehaaa. I wanna kick his freaking ass!!!!! a kennedy Dec 2 #17

DEAD HEAT! James48 Dec 2 #25

Nope now it's not a dead heat at all mucifer Dec 2 #27

Define... Ellipsis Dec 2 #28

he's now up by 6000. Click on the link. mucifer Dec 2 #29

Following NY Times. Ellipsis Dec 2 #32

Ah, The Republican's fake ballot truck must have arrived! Jack Valentino Dec 2 #34

It's possible someone "found" some votes trump asked them to find. We will never know. mucifer Dec 2 #35

2/3 of the vote in. Down by seven FBaggins Dec 2 #30

I think you hit the number. Ellipsis Dec 2 #37

8.5 SSJVegeta Dec 2 #45

He is probably going to win it but this is an earthquake in Redville InstantGratification Dec 2 #31

I've never thought this was realistic D_Master81 Dec 2 #33

she did seem to do that LymphocyteLover Dec 2 #42

Think about it too. She raised a fraction of what the D candidates pulled in Florida SSJVegeta Dec 2 #44

Nope, not gonna take this seat. a kennedy Dec 2 #36

NBC called it for van epps 2 Meow Momma Dec 2 #38

Yeah, just saw that, VanEpps ahead at the moment by 10K votes IzzaNuDay Dec 2 #39

A lot of Davidson county (Nashville) is still out so the final total may be better than that. 2 Meow Momma Dec 2 #41

It's over, unfortunately. evolves Dec 2 #40

She closed the margin from 22% to maybe 8% SSJVegeta Dec 2 #43

This is make their redistricting efforts very, very costly nt mr715 Dec 2 #47

I'm very excited for it. SSJVegeta Dec 2 #48

She ran on a Bernie platform in a very red district, Emile Dec 2 #49

+1 leftstreet Dec 2 #51

Bernie is popular with the working class. progressoid Dec 2 #52

MustLoveBeagles

(14,782 posts)

1. That's good news

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:15 PM

Dec 2

She's doing better than I thought she would.

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

3. First returns in montgomery show her ahead by 3%

Reply to MustLoveBeagles (Reply #1)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:17 PM

Dec 2

Green won it by 20%

Im almost ready to call it TBH

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

46. Stupid hopium

Reply to SSJVegeta (Reply #3)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 10:07 PM

Dec 2

Helluva drug

Tribetime

(7,058 posts)

10. She is soaring on predictit right now for whatever

Reply to MustLoveBeagles (Reply #1)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:35 PM

Dec 2

Thats worth ..but if its less than 10% Michael Steele says its a wrap on the midterms...it might be much closer than that

FBaggins

(28,631 posts)

23. That didn't last long

Reply to Tribetime (Reply #10)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:52 PM

Dec 2

She just crashed to 1-2% after briefling climbing to over 20% odds.

if its less than 10% Michael Steele says its a wrap on the midterms

That (along with a silly hit piece on his wife this morning) were what dashed my hopes. Losing by single digits would be arguably a good sign nationally... but moving the goalposts like that was a sign that we knew we wouldn't win

SheltieLover

(76,819 posts)

2. Excellent!

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:16 PM

Dec 2

Demsrule86

(71,492 posts)

4. No returns from Nashville...either

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:23 PM

Dec 2

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

5. I mean unless im crazy I cant see van epps making up a huge amount of ground with 50% of the vote left in the reddest

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #4)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:24 PM

Dec 2

Counties

mr715

(2,715 posts)

6. Sorry to be pessimistic

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:27 PM

Dec 2

It looks like Rep. Behn will perform extremely well, but it does not look like she is on track to win outright.

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

7. If this trend sticks she will

Reply to mr715 (Reply #6)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:29 PM

Dec 2

Still a big if.

mvd

(65,841 posts)

8. What are you basing this on?

Reply to mr715 (Reply #6)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:30 PM

Dec 2

The other posts say the trends make a win possible.

Response to mvd (Reply #8)

SSJVegeta This message was self-deleted by its author.

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

13. Shes overperformingnin Davidson County by almost 50%??

Reply to mvd (Reply #8)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:38 PM

Dec 2

mr715

(2,715 posts)

26. It is possible.

Reply to mvd (Reply #8)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:02 PM

Dec 2

It isn't a lock. Lots of variables.

azureblue

(2,665 posts)

50. she should demand a recount

Reply to mr715 (Reply #26)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 10:57 PM

Dec 2

Stealing / losing / not counting votes is a time honored GOP tradition. Use the GOP "stolen election" meme and demand a recount..

Response to mr715 (Reply #6)

MarineCombatEngineer This message was self-deleted by its author.

Boo1

(146 posts)

12. If last months results

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:38 PM

Dec 2

weren't enough......Democrats winning (or even getting close) in this district should be a five alarm fire for Republicans.

a kennedy

(35,300 posts)

14. NYTimes......D-Behn 37,556.....R-Van Epps 33,185 44%of the vote in.

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:41 PM

Dec 2

Response to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Gaytano70 This message was self-deleted by its author.

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

16. I think it might be over

Reply to Gaytano70 (Reply #15)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:42 PM

Dec 2

Unless she ends up simply losing the remaining votes in Nashville...

mucifer

(25,526 posts)

18. Only 42% of the votes are in

Reply to SSJVegeta (Reply #16)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:45 PM

Dec 2

Response to mucifer (Reply #18)

Gaytano70 This message was self-deleted by its author.

mucifer

(25,526 posts)

21. Not what Chris Hayes is saying on MSNBC

Reply to Gaytano70 (Reply #19)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:51 PM

Dec 2

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

24. Its actually flipped. I also kinda misread the chart.

Reply to Gaytano70 (Reply #19)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:53 PM

Dec 2

Closer to 49 for Behn and 51 for Van Epps.

Which given the current results, he would need more than that to win. And the estimation is quickly favoring towards Behn.

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

22. Not in red counties

Reply to mucifer (Reply #18)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:52 PM

Dec 2

Thats probably closer to 65% or so.

Van Epps is even more behind Green in his margins in those deep red counties than when the counting started.

Response to SSJVegeta (Reply #16)

Celerity This message was self-deleted by its author.

a kennedy

(35,300 posts)

17. Yeeehaaa. I wanna kick his freaking ass!!!!!

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:43 PM

Dec 2

James48

(5,094 posts)

25. DEAD HEAT!

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 08:56 PM

Dec 2

2 of 14 counties in.

It’s a dead heat!

R- 45,764
D- 45,287

Returns live:
https://elections.tn.gov/categories/us-house/offices

mucifer

(25,526 posts)

27. Nope now it's not a dead heat at all

Reply to James48 (Reply #25)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:03 PM

Dec 2

Ellipsis

(9,419 posts)

28. Define...

Reply to mucifer (Reply #27)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:04 PM

Dec 2

mucifer

(25,526 posts)

29. he's now up by 6000. Click on the link.

Reply to Ellipsis (Reply #28)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:06 PM

Dec 2

Ellipsis

(9,419 posts)

32. Following NY Times.

Reply to mucifer (Reply #29)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:14 PM

Dec 2

Davidson County.... only 55% in.

I'm certainly not calling you out... but I'd like to see Davidison totals.

Jack Valentino

(4,375 posts)

34. Ah, The Republican's fake ballot truck must have arrived!

Reply to mucifer (Reply #29)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:18 PM

Dec 2

mucifer

(25,526 posts)

35. It's possible someone "found" some votes trump asked them to find. We will never know.

Reply to Jack Valentino (Reply #34)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:19 PM

Dec 2

FBaggins

(28,631 posts)

30. 2/3 of the vote in. Down by seven

Reply to Ellipsis (Reply #28)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:06 PM

Dec 2

Projected to lose by six.

Ellipsis

(9,419 posts)

37. I think you hit the number.

Reply to FBaggins (Reply #30)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:22 PM

Dec 2

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

45. 8.5

Reply to FBaggins (Reply #30)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 10:06 PM

Dec 2

The early votes and same day votes were like night and day

InstantGratification

(417 posts)

31. He is probably going to win it but this is an earthquake in Redville

Reply to James48 (Reply #25)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:08 PM

Dec 2

Winning by a quarter of a percent in a district that Dumpster Fire won by over 20 points and that is so reliably red that they don't really have to campaign??? That is gonna rattle cages in red circles. There WILL be fallout from this one. If they didn't believe the results in the other elections, no matter how much they deny it publicly, this scares the hell out of them. It isn't a shot across the bow warning, it is a direct hit scoring serious damage. It didn't sink their battleship, but the motherfuckers FELT this one big time!!!!

D_Master81

(2,344 posts)

33. I've never thought this was realistic

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:16 PM

Dec 2

I was just hoping she could keep it between 5-10 to show that anything below R+12-15 might be in play. Honestly these numbers even in defeat would be fantastic

LymphocyteLover

(9,367 posts)

42. she did seem to do that

Reply to D_Master81 (Reply #33)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:47 PM

Dec 2

SSJVegeta

(2,322 posts)

44. Think about it too. She raised a fraction of what the D candidates pulled in Florida

Reply to D_Master81 (Reply #33)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 10:04 PM

Dec 2

And had almost the same overperformance.

I think if she raised at least another couple mil she wouldve won. She had a good message that was drowned out by the GOP superpac cash cows.

a kennedy

(35,300 posts)

36. Nope, not gonna take this seat.

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:21 PM

Dec 2

NYT’s 78% of votes in….Van Epps 52%…… Behn. 46%. Shy’s NOT gonna win this election. But DAMN, SHE DID HER BEST IN AGAWD DAMN RED AREA.

2 Meow Momma

(6,876 posts)

38. NBC called it for van epps

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:24 PM

Dec 2

IzzaNuDay

(1,241 posts)

39. Yeah, just saw that, VanEpps ahead at the moment by 10K votes

Reply to 2 Meow Momma (Reply #38)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:27 PM

Dec 2

shame on them

2 Meow Momma

(6,876 posts)

41. A lot of Davidson county (Nashville) is still out so the final total may be better than that.

Reply to IzzaNuDay (Reply #39)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:39 PM

Dec 2

evolves

(5,738 posts)

40. It's over, unfortunately.

Reply to SSJVegeta (Original post)

Tue Dec 2, 2025, 09:30 PM

Dec 2

This state cares more about funneling money into the pockets of crooks who will strip their healthcare, ruin their environment, and keep them in poverty.
At least they are “owning the libs…”