General Discussion

edhopper

(37,095 posts) Mon Dec 1, 2025, 01:01 PM Dec 1

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry says Tesla is 'ridiculously overvalued'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/big-short-investor-michael-burry-says-tesla-is-ridiculously-overvalued/ar-AA1Ru8mc

"Tesla's market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time," Burry wrote, adding that he expects Musk's $1 trillion dollar pay package to continue to dilute the company's shares.

"As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up," the legendary investor said.

I have been saying this for a while.

13 replies

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Highlight:

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry says Tesla is 'ridiculously overvalued' (Original Post) edhopper Dec 1 OP

It's been overvalued for almost a decade. tinrobot Dec 1 #1

This message was self-deleted by its author Melon Dec 1 #2

I don't get how investors edhopper Dec 1 #3

The market can remain irrational longer than most can remain solvent EdmondDantes_ Dec 1 #5

Even if we accept certain corporate leaders edhopper Dec 1 #7

Absolutely, but the public doesn't really acknowledge that EdmondDantes_ Dec 1 #9

He's not wrong. In It to Win It Dec 1 #4

Is he ever? lame54 Dec 1 #6

Almost always pcdb Dec 1 #8

He has said before not to bother shorting Tesla Johonny Dec 1 #10

He may be right fujiyamasan Dec 1 #11

You are right edhopper Dec 1 #12

Same goes with Palantir fujiyamasan Dec 1 #13

tinrobot

(11,955 posts)

1. It's been overvalued for almost a decade.

Reply to edhopper (Original post)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 01:05 PM

Dec 1

People have gone broke waiting for the bottom to drop out of that stock.

It will eventually. When the dam finally breaks, it will be catastrophic.

Response to tinrobot (Reply #1)

Melon This message was self-deleted by its author.

edhopper

(37,095 posts)

3. I don't get how investors

Reply to tinrobot (Reply #1)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 01:12 PM

Dec 1

think those PE values are sustainable.

I remember in the 00s a housing bubble was obvious early on. It just takes time for something to crack.
For Tesla, as long as fools want to keep throwing money at that stock, it will rise, but once at some point....

EdmondDantes_

(1,391 posts)

5. The market can remain irrational longer than most can remain solvent

Reply to tinrobot (Reply #1)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 01:21 PM

Dec 1

Unfortunately a lot of people still buy into the great man of history myth in the market so celebrity CEOs can boost their own value through stocks.

edhopper

(37,095 posts)

7. Even if we accept certain corporate leaders

Reply to EdmondDantes_ (Reply #5)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 03:05 PM

Dec 1

for good or ill made their companies great, Edison, Ford, Geneen, Gates...
Elon is not one of those. He bought companies and was more lucky than smart.

EdmondDantes_

(1,391 posts)

9. Absolutely, but the public doesn't really acknowledge that

Reply to edhopper (Reply #7)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 04:46 PM

Dec 1

Or how much he benefited from government whether through EV subsidies, selling tax credits, etc. Plus it's easier to make big gambles when you start with a large fortune from apartheid emerald mines. But he's still portrayed as someone special.

In It to Win It

(12,342 posts)

4. He's not wrong.

Reply to edhopper (Original post)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 01:13 PM

Dec 1

lame54

(39,216 posts)

6. Is he ever?

Reply to In It to Win It (Reply #4)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 01:25 PM

Dec 1

pcdb

(84 posts)

8. Almost always

Reply to lame54 (Reply #6)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 04:42 PM

Dec 1

He was right once.

https://moneyzine.com/investments/investing/how-many-times-has-michael-burry-been-wrong/

Johonny

(25,503 posts)

10. He has said before not to bother shorting Tesla

Reply to edhopper (Original post)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 05:10 PM

Dec 1

Because it is a pathological stock.

fujiyamasan

(1,234 posts)

11. He may be right

Reply to edhopper (Original post)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 06:04 PM

Dec 1

But unless you have a lot of money to burn, short selling stocks is a very difficult game to win. It’s not just about direction of the stock price, it’s also about the timing. That’s why options can be so dangerous. What people forget about the Big Short is that for a while, Burry was losing a lot of money.

There have been a lot of investors that have tried to short Tesla over the years, and they have usually got burned very badly. The same goes with Palantir.

Nvidia is imo different. It’s a monster of a company, has a very wide moat, and has the margins and revenue growth to warrant a high valuation. It may be overvalued at the moment, but there’s difference between a PE in the 40s or 50s (nvidia) that over 200-500 (Palantir being well over 300). The latter two are basically cult stocks.

edhopper

(37,095 posts)

12. You are right

Reply to fujiyamasan (Reply #11)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 06:34 PM

Dec 1

I would not short it, because who knows when investors will wake up.
But I will enjoy the collapse.

fujiyamasan

(1,234 posts)

13. Same goes with Palantir

Reply to edhopper (Reply #12)

Mon Dec 1, 2025, 07:42 PM

Dec 1

I read he bought a lot of puts on it, but I have no idea what strike price or expiration. Pltr is down ~20% from its highs, so if he bought those around then, he’s doing well.

The CEO is an absolute lunatic, and of course one of the founders is Peter Thiel.

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