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China is ready for Trump -- Brian O'Neill - The Contrarian
https://contrarian.substack.com/p/china-is-ready-for-trumpI find this piece well written with good insights into trump's posturing.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a “very positive” call on trade. The two leaders, he said, had resolved tensions over rare earth mineral exports, and their teams would meet again soon. Xi welcomed Trump to visit Beijing.
Invitations were exchanged. Smiles posted. Beneath the surface, almost nothing changed.
A 90-day tariff truce brokered in Geneva was already unraveling when Thursday’s call took place. Xi’s message was diplomatic but direct: Steer this “big ship” away from sabotage—or else. Trump, of course, heard what he wanted: a deal he could sell, regardless of whether one exists.
We’ve seen this play before. The handshakes. The headlines. The claim that he alone can fix it. The problem is that rational trade policy isn’t the goal. Performance is. That’s what the floated Beijing trip is about: optics. A meeting, a photo, and a three-word phrase he can yell from a tarmac—“Tough but fair.”
Trump’s moves are driven not by national interest but emotional payoff. If a negotiation makes him look small, he will sabotage it. If a headline calls him weak, he’ll escalate. If Xi flatters him, he’ll fold.
. . .
Invitations were exchanged. Smiles posted. Beneath the surface, almost nothing changed.
A 90-day tariff truce brokered in Geneva was already unraveling when Thursday’s call took place. Xi’s message was diplomatic but direct: Steer this “big ship” away from sabotage—or else. Trump, of course, heard what he wanted: a deal he could sell, regardless of whether one exists.
We’ve seen this play before. The handshakes. The headlines. The claim that he alone can fix it. The problem is that rational trade policy isn’t the goal. Performance is. That’s what the floated Beijing trip is about: optics. A meeting, a photo, and a three-word phrase he can yell from a tarmac—“Tough but fair.”
Trump’s moves are driven not by national interest but emotional payoff. If a negotiation makes him look small, he will sabotage it. If a headline calls him weak, he’ll escalate. If Xi flatters him, he’ll fold.
. . .
Much more in the article.
Brian O’Neill, a retired senior executive from the CIA and National Counterterrorism Center, is an instructor on strategic intelligence at Georgia Tech.
3 replies
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https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220383670
Chinese spy crew appears to be preparing for conflict by backdooring 75+ critical orgs
The long of it:
U.S. cyber and kinetic defenses have been torn down, since the "real enemy" has been declared DEI instead of foreign powers.
Further, Trunk's plan is to undo pretty much Obama and Biden did, most recently, rescinding cyber defense precautions.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220295160
Understand the coup plan. Expose it, Explain it and encourage everyone to do the right and appropriate thing to stop it
For most of us, merely exposing it weakens it, in Sun-Tzu fashion.
Everyone has a job to do!
Chinese spy crew appears to be preparing for conflict by backdooring 75+ critical orgs
"They might be going after government organizations for more direct espionage," Hegel said. "And then major global media organizations — maybe it's silencing certain topics or disrupting them for reporting on certain things. If they are sitting on their adversaries' networks — media organizations, or government entities or their defense companies — they are able to flip a switch if conflict were to occur."
The long of it:
U.S. cyber and kinetic defenses have been torn down, since the "real enemy" has been declared DEI instead of foreign powers.
Further, Trunk's plan is to undo pretty much Obama and Biden did, most recently, rescinding cyber defense precautions.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220295160
Understand the coup plan. Expose it, Explain it and encourage everyone to do the right and appropriate thing to stop it
For most of us, merely exposing it weakens it, in Sun-Tzu fashion.
Everyone has a job to do!