Tariffs and World War - History Lesson

As pretty much every expert on history trade and the economy will tell you the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act made the Great Depression much worse. That in itself made World War-2 more inevitable.

But perhaps overlooked is how it contributed to the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QUcdQLEhsc0

Fast forward to 2025 and Trump, who knows absolutely less than nothing about history, or how tariffs work. One of my many fears is that raising tariffs on China Will lower their perceived cost of invading Taiwan. Right now, I believe that China is too dependent on trade to make the cost of attacking Taiwan far too high. But with a substantial drop in trade changes the equation. In addition, if Trump cuts or eliminates aid to Ukraine and drops sanctions on Russia, that too will increase China's perception that the United States would take effective action against them if they invade.

History will more than rhyme, it will bleed.