10 Questions About U.S. Politics in 2025

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/10-questions-about-us-politics-in

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1. The length of Trump’s honeymoon. As he embarks on a second term, Trump is more popular on net this time around. When he was elected in 2016, just 38 percent of voters have a favorable view of him compared 60 percent who had an unfavorable view. In the 2024 election, however, those figures were 46 percent and 53 percent, respectively, and FiveThirtyEight’s rolling average shows them at virtually the same level today: a -0.3 net favorable rating. But it remains to be seen whether Trump can retain or even improve on his current positioning. Though his approval rating in January 2017 was above water—45.5 percent approved versus 41.3 percent who disapproved—it took just 15 days for that to invert, after which his disapproval rating remained higher for the rest of his time in office. Will the same happen this time, too? Or have voters given Trump a longer leash?

2. Trump’s overreach. During the 2024 campaign, Trump went to great lengths to distance himself from the less popular positions associated with the Republican Party, including stressing that he would veto a federal abortion ban and keeping the highly controversial Project 2025 at arm’s length. However, there are already indications Trump may be backtracking on some of that. For instance, he has given architects of Project 2025 high-ranking positions in his administration, despite his transition team leader saying before the election that the project had “no connection” to the campaign and that the people associated with it had “made themselves nuclear.” Moreover, Trump is also facing some early resistance from voters on other key campaign promises, including tariffs (voters oppose them against China, Canada, and Mexico by a margin of 51–38 percent) and immigration (Americans oppose deportations if they will restart family separations by a margin of 57–38 percent). Whether Trump goes too far for the majority of Americans on these and similar questions is likely to inform the answer to Question 1 as well.

3. The response to any Trump overreach. After Trump was elected the first time, it didn’t take long for his opposition to organize. Mass demonstrations rocked the United States even before he assumed office and continued into his presidency, especially as he made decisions that many viewed as overreaching such as his ban on travel from select Muslim-majority countries. But there are signs that the “resistance” to him may be waning. The certification of Trump’s victory was a fairly mum affair, with few hints of organized opposition. It’s unclear whether this portends permanent disillusion or calm before a resurgence (perhaps hastened by Trump’s actions in office). If a backlash does occur, though, it could take several forms: voters souring on his job performance, blue states moving left on policy, or cultural institutions pushing for a Great Awokening, Part 2. The question is, will it come? And if so, will it be as strong as the last time? (And will there be a backlash to the backlash, as there was after 2020?)

4. Democrats’ performance in special elections. It has become widely accepted knowledge that the shifting of the two parties’ coalitions during the Trump era has brought more highly educated, high-propensity voters into the Democratic coalition, which has correspondingly led the party to have greater success in lower-turnout, off-year elections. Since 2016, Democrats have overperformed their baseline during every two-year election cycle. It’s therefore a near-certainty that the party will experience some success in elections this year. The more interesting data point will be about the extent of their success—i.e., whether or not they match (or even do better than) past performance. If they are in the ballpark of that 2017–2018 showing, it could be a sign they are regaining ground with voters they lost last year. But if it’s more akin to the 2020 (D+4), 2022 (D+0.5), or 2024 (D+5) cycles, we may once again be left to wonder whether they’ve truly figured what ails them.

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